https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Hephaistos%27%20Handcraft/Tradable/Craftable/118

Vicious Circle Hephaistos' Handcraft (mini for Disco Beat Down Strontium Stove Pipe)

Current price : Unpriced

New price : 13 - 18 keys

Sale 1 (August 12 2019)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31000;5;u118

https://backpack.tf/item/7286022600

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-08-12&price=19.95

Key's price on this day : $1.82

Sold for $19.95

19.95 / 1.82 = 10.96 = 11 keys

11 keys 30 ref b/o : https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y7DJJ6PW

Sale 2 (June 28 2019)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31000;5;u118

Can't find hat's history

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-06-28&price=33.99

Key's price on this day : $1.84

Sold for $33.99

33.99 / 1.84 = 18.47 = 18 keys

Sale 3 (June 23 2019)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31000;5;u118

https://backpack.tf/item/7260843237

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-06-23&price=32.95

Key's price on this day : $1.83

Sold for $32.95

32.95 / 1.83 = 18 keys

No b/o found

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154495510#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600

Bulk

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832634596#!/compare/1565654400/1565740800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154495510#!/compare/1565568000/1565740800

Sale for which one I need this mini

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050933686#!/compare/1565568000/1565654400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832634596#!/compare/1565308800/1565568000

Sold with 3 keys for a Starstorm Insomnia Cranial Carcharodon (15.5 keys, mini : https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d6aee2f67807208e86d2740)

15.5 - 3 = 12.5, rounding to 13 keys

13 keys b/o : https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YDLPPNJK

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047617923#!/compare/1566864000/1566950400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083715179#!/compare/1566000000/1566864000

Untraceable (missing items)

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047617923#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

Sold for 12 keys

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253544697#!/compare/1562112000/1562198400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1562112000/1562198400

Untraceable

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023051867#!/compare/1561334400/1561420800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253544697#!/compare/1561680000/1561766400

Untraceable

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198333986358#!/compare/1561248000/1561334400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023051867#!/compare/1561248000/1561334400

Untraceable

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198808579976#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326633698#!/compare/1565481600/1566086400

Sold for a Magnetic Hat Protector A Head Full of Hot Air (Can't make mini)

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198808579976#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

Sold for 7 keys

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1564617600/1564704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353205593#!/compare/1564704000/1566172800

Sold for 13 keys

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198928347702#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1563840000/1563926400

Untraceable

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166908431#!/compare/1562889600/1563926400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198928347702#!/compare/1563148800/1563235200

Untraceable

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326633698#!/compare/1567296000/1567382400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310828043#!/compare/1567123200/1567296000

Untraceable

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310828043#!/compare/1567296000/1567555200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326633698#!/compare/1567296000/1567382400

Sold for a Miami Nights Noble Nickel Amassment of Hats (19 keys)

No b/o found

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326633698#!/compare/1568419200/1568505600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214202059#!/compare/1568419200/1568505600

Sold for a Midnight Whirlwind Taunt: Conga (can't make mini) + 8 keys

Summary :

2 @ 18 keys

1 @ 17 keys

2 @ 13 keys

1 @ 12 keys <---- Outlier

1 @ 11 keys <---- Countered by quickbuyers

1 @ 7 keys <---- Countered by quickbuyers