Unaffected by the Crate Depression, using last 3 months.

Sale 1:

Sold for 24 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1562198400/1562284800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267963372#!/compare/1562198400/1562284800

https://backpack.tf/item/7195694620

https://i.imgur.com/JKrnzuh.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 24

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 22 keys + 12 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098330939#!/compare/1562025600/1562112000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1562025600/1562112000

https://backpack.tf/item/7195694620

https://i.imgur.com/JKrnzuh.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 22

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 22 keys + 10 ref (buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353598847#!/compare/1562371200/1562716800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1562630400/1562716800

https://backpack.tf/item/7097483302

https://i.imgur.com/JKrnzuh.png - bot.tf confirms

X = 22

Sale 4:

Sold for 21 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1564444800/1564531200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010991677#!/compare/1564531200/1564876800

https://backpack.tf/item/7068587276

X = 21

Sale 5:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 20 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355453608#!/compare/1562198400/1563235200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1563148800/1563235200

https://backpack.tf/item/6925420204

X = 20

Sale 6:

Sold for 19 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113755458#!/compare/1565308800/1565395200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125711150#!/compare/1565308800/1565395200

https://backpack.tf/item/6743062052

X = 19

Sale 7:

Quicksold for 17 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978500506#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997331749#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

https://backpack.tf/item/7097483302

X = 17

Sale 8:

Sold for Purple Energy Puffy Polar Cap

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997331749#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198290053747#!/compare/1566518400/1566691200

https://backpack.tf/item/7097483302

Plenty of pure sales here already, can be used on the Cap instead.

Sale 9:

Sold for Logo Runner’s Warm-Up

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280448275#!/compare/1567468800/1567555200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141949945#!/compare/1567468800/1567555200

https://backpack.tf/item/7068587276

Same as the sale above. Current seller at 15 on the Warm-Up, so it may not go to well on either item.

Sale 10:

Sold with ~2 keys in tickets for Circling Peace Sign Brown Bomber

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141949945#!/compare/1567468800/1567555200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043916714#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600

https://backpack.tf/item/7068587276

Can be used on the Bomber.

Sale 11:

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Winter Woodsman

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125711150#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038609793#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

https://backpack.tf/item/6743062052

Can be used on the Woodsman.

Sale 12:

Sold for Mystery Sombrero

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038609793#!/compare/1566691200/1566777600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019370873#!/compare/1566518400/1566864000

https://backpack.tf/item/6743062052

Use on Sombrero.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30977;5;u58

$46.95, July 4th

$35.15, July 8th

$57.42, July 13th

$55.90, August 2nd

$35.16, August 2nd

$49.99, August 8th

$35.35, August 23rd

$35.31, August 24th

$37.50, August 25th

$49.99, August 31st

$49.99, September 1st

$44, September 5th

https://backpack.tf/item/7195694620 - July 8th or 13th

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M00ZOXVM

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M1JOZK04

No noteworthy B/O on either date

https://backpack.tf/item/7097483302 - August 2nd, both sales (re-sold to buy order after purchase), August 8th

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGZZ3K2Z - B/O of ~20 on August 2nd

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXQEPW88 - No B/O on August 8th

https://backpack.tf/item/6925420204 - 31st August or 1st September

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0DNXQ8X

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y35Z3W7Q

No Noteworthy B/O

Couldn’t find the histories for the others.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-04&price=46.95 - $46.95 / $1.84 = 25.52 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-08&price=35.15 - $35.15 / $1.83 = 19.21 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-13&price=57.42 - $57.42 / $1.82 = 31.55 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-02&price=55.9 - $55.9 / $1.81 = 30.88 keys, Capped at 20

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-08-02&price=35.16 - $35.16 / $1.81 = 19.43 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-08&price=49.99 - $49.99 / $1.82 = 27.47 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-23&price=35.35 - $35.35 / $1.82 = 19.42 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-24&price=35.31 - $35.31 / $1.82 = 19.40 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-25&price=37.5 - $37.5 / $1.82 = 20.60 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-31&price=49.99 - $49.99 / $1.82 = 27.47 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-01&price=49.99 - $49.99 / $1.82 = 27.47 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-05&price=44 - $44 / $1.81 = 24.31 keys

X = 32

X = 27 (3x)

X = 26

X = 24

X = 21

X = 20 (Capped by B/O)

X = 19 (4x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7530734997 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7097483302 (#2-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/7068587276 (#5-7)

https://backpack.tf/item/6925420204 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/6743062052 (#9)

https://backpack.tf/item/7977214319 - scrap

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993326366#!/compare/1562284800/1562457600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1562371200/1562457600

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195420449#!/compare/1562198400/1562284800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1562112000/1562198400

#3

Untraceable, only some keys/items match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1562284800/1562371200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353598847#!/compare/1562198400/1562371200

#4

Bulk for DBD Neckwear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251960730#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978500506#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

Using on the Neckwear.

#5

Untraceable, sold to a bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198848583097#!/compare/1561161600/1561420800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1561420800/1561507200

https://i.imgur.com/JKrnzuh.png - labelled as 22 keys + 12 ref

#6

Untraceable, most likely missing a person in history

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1563062400/1563148800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1563148800/1563235200

https://i.imgur.com/JKrnzuh.png - labelled as 21 keys

#7

Sold with Dead Presidents Head Hedge + some items for Cloud 9 Merc’s Mohawk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010991677#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280448275#!/compare/1567468800/1567555200

Should be used on the Mohawk

#8

Untraceable, only some keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1566172800/1566259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019587395#!/compare/1566172800/1566259200

#9

Bulk for Death at Dusk Deep Cover Operator

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216410464#!/compare/1563926400/1564012800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097451101#!/compare/1563926400/1564012800

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/1nCFcxk.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6741401899 - 27 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6749004791 - 27 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7097483302 - 28 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7195694620 - 30 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6925420204 - 30 keys

Sales at:

17

19 (5x)

20 (2x)

21 (2x)

22 (2x)

24 (2x)

26

27 (3x)

32

17 looks like a bit of an outlier, excluding.

Not comfortable with setting the high end with marketplace sales, considering there most likely was a B/O for lower, and since the item was selling at ~20-22 keys consistently a month or two ago. Some of the listing snapshots provided in this suggestion show sellers dropping fairly low. Would be better to stick with the sales around the pure sales we have. Excluding 26+.

Going with 19-24.