Using sales that have occurred since the bugged unusuals were released (~16th August).

Sale 1:

Sold with ~0.5 keys in skins for Dead Presidents Hard Counter + Orbiting Fire Bootleg Base Metal Billycock (9.5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212481737#!/compare/1566691200/1566777600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169444473#!/compare/1566691200/1566777600

https://backpack.tf/item/7956727244

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZKJ6VP1 - B/O of 15

The hard Counter would have to be 5.5 keys or less for this to be less than 15. Considering buyers just a couple ref off of 5.5 keys, and marketplace sales at ~7 keys worth (high, but not many other sales to work with), I’d say this shouldn’t have trouble capping.

X = 15

Sale 2:

Sold for 14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124728984#!/compare/1566345600/1566432000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056086416#!/compare/1566345600/1566432000

https://backpack.tf/item/7956727244

X = 14

Sale 3:

Sold for 13 keys + Spelled Chapeau (1) + some ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169444473#!/compare/1567382400/1567468800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198812129236#!/compare/1567382400/1567468800

https://backpack.tf/item/7956727244

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169444473#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600 - spelled item sold for 1 key. Seems low, but it’ll have to do.

X = 14

Sale 4:

Sold for 14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090412935#!/compare/1566777600/1566864000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104888831#!/compare/1566604800/1566864000

https://backpack.tf/item/3786298586

X = 14

Sale 5:

Sold for 13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056086416#!/compare/1566172800/1566259200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1566172800/1566259200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956268949

X = 13

Sale 6:

Sold for 13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275390406#!/compare/1566691200/1566777600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212481737#!/compare/1566691200/1566777600

https://backpack.tf/item/7956727244

X = 13

Sale 7:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 11 keys + ~1 key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202168173#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1565827200/1565913600

https://backpack.tf/item/7957184295

X = 12

Sale 8:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 10 keys + 15 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198823690053#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1566172800/1566259200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956410007

X = 10

Sale 9:

Sold for Mega Strike Kazotsky Kick + 1 key

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198812129236#!/compare/1568419200/1568505600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198245296770#!/compare/1568332800/1568419200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956727244

Easily fits in the range.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30187;5;u62

$35, September 1st - https://backpack.tf/item/7956268949

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y8E1K03X - B/O of 20

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-01&price=35 - $35 / $1.82 = 19.23 keys

X = 19

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957103579 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956727244 (#2-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956410007 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956268949 (#6 & #7)

https://backpack.tf/item/7955875755 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/3786298586 (#9 & #10)

https://backpack.tf/item/2376763158 (#11)

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068789311#!/compare/1565395200/1566086400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271382917#!/compare/1564963200/1566000000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198881336480#!/compare/1557964800/1566345600

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056086416#!/compare/1566518400/1566604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997331749#!/compare/1566518400/1566604800

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997331749#!/compare/1566518400/1566604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275390406#!/compare/1566518400/1566604800

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1568592000/1568678400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191968215#!/compare/1568592000/1568678400

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0D56JXE - B/O was 15 with buyers at ~12 at the time, I’m certain it didn’t sell for only 12.

#6

Untraceable due to private inventory

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204991008

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198847519855#!/compare/1565654400/1566000000

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138170333#!/compare/1567641600/1567987200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1567900800/1567987200

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009784456#!/compare/1565913600/1566432000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

#9

Bulk for DBD Neckwear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251960730#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978500506#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

Using on dat

#10

Bulk for Roboactive Conquistador

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978500506#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090412935#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200

#11

Bulk for Kill-a-Watt Mask of the Shaman

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054056841#!/compare/1565481600/1566000000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000

Orbiting Fire Bootleg Base Metal Billycock:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d8773e3678072215e0471bc

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/Z7QyNIH.png

https://i.imgur.com/UjZwiGO.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7957184295 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2376763158 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3994259394 - 18 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3786298586 - 22 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956765630 - 24 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956220807 - 24 keys

Sales at:

10

12

13 (2x)

14 (3x)

15

19

10 and 19 are outliers, excluding them.

12 is a single sale to a quickbuyer countered by current buyers https://i.imgur.com/4XYzTEH.png

Excluding 12.

Going with 13-15.