Counter, the last suggester had a month to fix up their suggestion.

Using sales that have occurred since the bugged unusuals were released (~16th August).

Sale 1:

Sold for 44 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052196602#!/compare/1567641600/1567728000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308147530#!/compare/1567641600/1567728000

https://backpack.tf/item/5510507142

X = 44

Sale 2:

Sold for Disco Beat Down Neckwear Headwear (Suggestion at 29)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170098378#!/compare/1568592000/1568678400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062205682#!/compare/1568678400/1568764800

https://backpack.tf/item/7957383501

X = 29

Sale 3:

Sold for 24 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104639888#!/compare/1568073600/1568246400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075452291#!/compare/1568073600/1568246400

https://backpack.tf/item/7957383501

X = 24

Sale 4:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 23 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062205682#!/compare/1568851200/1568937600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1568851200/1568937600

https://backpack.tf/item/7957383501

X = 23

Sale 5:

Sold for Haunted Ghosts Fed-Fightin’ Fedora

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086451394#!/compare/1566172800/1566259200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198365925932#!/compare/1566000000/1566259200

https://backpack.tf/item/7957383501

Not many valid sales on the Fedora, can be used on that instead.

Sale 6:

Sold with Disco Beat Down Your Worst Nightmare for Stormy Storm Galvanized Gibus + Ghastly Ghosts Proletariat Posedown

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342885380#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044425376#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600

https://backpack.tf/item/7957247643

No sales on the Posedown, excluding.

Sale 7:

Sold for Scorching Flames Private Eye

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240765628#!/compare/1566000000/1566172800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012913578#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

https://backpack.tf/item/7956025165

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084367252#!/compare/1567468800/1567900800 - considering a sale this high on the private eye, I think it’s safe to say the private eye is too high to be used here.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30567;5;u61

https://backpack.tf/item/7956765429 - August 16th & August 25th, B/O of 100 on August 25th

https://i.imgur.com/RKGekvK.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7957415607 - September 5th, no B/O

https://backpack.tf/item/7956203242 - September 6th, no B/O

https://backpack.tf/item/7956566100 - probably one of the September 22nd sales, not sure. No B/O though.

Can’t confirm histories for any other sale.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-16&price=85.13 - $85.13 / $1.83 = 46.52 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-25&price=85 - $85 / $1.82 = 46.70 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-28&price=85 - $85 / $1.81 = 46.96 keys (2x)

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-02&price=51 - $51 / $1.82 = 28.02 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-04&price=80.19 - $80.19 / $1.81 = 44.30 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-05&price=81 - $81 / $1.81 = 44.75 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-06&price=81 - $81 / $1.82 = 44.51 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-18&price=79.99 - $79.99 / $1.81 = 44.19 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-20&price=51.17 - $51.17 / $1.82 = 28.12 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-09-22&price=79.19 - $79.19 / $1.82 = 43.51 keys (doesn’t show key price on this date at the time of me making this suggestion, but it should shortly)

X = 47 (4x)

X = 45 (2x)

X = 44 (3x)

X = 28 (2x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957383501 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/5510507142 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956566100 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957247643 - gambled, maybe marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7957415607 - fuckin’ GMABLING AND STUFF

https://backpack.tf/item/7956765429 - gambled/marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7956203242 - gambled/marketplace/untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/7957408194 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/7956025165 - gambled/scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/3756714974 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7955652191 - no sales

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198365925932#!/compare/1566864000/1567123200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198830633436#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800

https://i.imgur.com/xvOIhGf.png - labelled as a 31 key purchase

Buyer withdrew the item from the bot and them gambled or something, so no sale afterwards.

#2

Bulk for Burning Noble

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075452291#!/compare/1568246400/1568332800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170098378#!/compare/1568160000/1568332800

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198950621219#!/compare/1568073600/1568160000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1568073600/1568160000

#4

Marketplace, most likely

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061836787#!/compare/1568937600/1569024000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154782261#!/compare/1569110400/1569196800

Couldn’t find the item on either compare link

Disco Beat Down Neckwear Headwear:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d877db9d381723e9b4e5a64

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/RKGekvK.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7957383501 - 38 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5510507142 - 39 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3756714974 - 45 keys

100 key seller sold already.

Sales at:

23

24

28 (2x)

29

44 (4x)

45 (2x)

47 (4x)

Sellers at 38, 39, and 45. Too many sales above them to all be excluded, though. We don’t want to stretch too far past the cheaper sellers, or end up with a large range, so I’ll set the high end with the pure sale at 44 keys. Excluding 45 and 47.

23 and 24 look like outliers. Excluding them.

Since 44 is being included but 45 isn’t, it should be fine to balance it out by excluding 28, and set 29 as the low-end. Both sales at 28 were most likely marketplace buy order sales anyways.

Going with 29-44.