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SALE 1
Sold for 28 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066956277#!/compare/1568937600/1569024000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1568851200/1568937600
SALE 2
Sold for 24 keys + 35.55 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051096323#!/compare/1567036800/1568419200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1568332800/1568419200
Rounds to 25 keys
SALE 3
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051352493#!/compare/1567900800/1567987200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074895734#!/compare/1567814400/1567900800
SALE 4
Sold for 30 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074895734#!/compare/1567987200/1568246400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198818035498#!/compare/1567987200/1568678400
SALE 5
Sold for 25 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062365679#!/compare/1567555200/1567987200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155110999#!/compare/1567468800/1567641600
SALE 6
Sold for 30 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208761289#!/compare/1566691200/1566777600
Buyout was also 30 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9GLR2VD
SALE 7
Sold to quickbuyer for unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198844249356#!/compare/1566000000/1567036800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000
SALE 8
Sold for 33 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106511423#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087947269#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
Buyout was 34 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4OV6OGGP
SALE 9
Sold for 26 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040184726#!/compare/1567641600/1567728000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1567728000/1567641600
SALE 10
Sold for 47.85 on July 2 (47.85/1.82 = 26.29 rounding to 26 keys)
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/108;5;u9
CLASSIFIEDS
https://gyazo.com/bee390b41b05c5a322adbae63b03671e
Sales at 25, 25, 26, 28, 30, 30, and 33. Marketplace sale at 26.
Taking 25-33 keys.
Normally id be fine with including 25 + 26 as they are common trading points (even though they are to quickbuying bots), but w/ pure sales for higher, I don't think they should be included. Esp since buyers have been as high as 27-28 (see your bot.tf screenshot for sale 8.) I was gonna suggest 28 - 33 but im not sure the 28 sale is right bc zol's b/o was 30 here https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4W6V6OXZ and zol doesn't negotiate/go lower in the vast majority of cases, so I would probably want confirmation of that before setting a range w/ it. Also, despite him owning it for a couple weeks, it was only listed for ~4 days before selling.
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9G7O1EN - initial listing
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4W6V6OXZ - final listing before selling
Id prob do 30 - 33 unless you can get confirmation of 28 (which is unlikely that you'll get, knowing zol unfortunately)
Buyers WERE as high as 27-28. This is when? A month ago, we are pricing the hat, as of now. There are 3 sales from 25-26, and current buyers do not go against these sales. Not only that, it's like you said, these are common trading points, and should be included in the range.
As for zol's sale, there are times where he sells for less, and 28 keys does show from his side.
I do see your point, but the thing is, no matter if a price is low, if it's a common trading point, it should be included within the range.
I'm sticking with the current range, due to all of what I said.
Buyers have been very inconsistent for the last month or so, with many buyers popping up in the 25-28 range.
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4OVL33QP - 2 days ago - buyer at 26
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EE78526 - 2 weeks ago - no buyers (highest at 20)
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y8E16OVW - 3 weeks ago - buyer at 28
I think at the very least this should be left open to let the buyers stabilize, then it will be easier to make a determination on what the best range is.
Yeah, leaving this open won't hurt then.
It's 28-30 vs 25-33. Mean is the same, and I prefer slightly wider ranges to account for natural variability in item values. As you say yourself, buyers are a moving target and this accounts for that without having to worry about them moving by a few keys one way or the other.