$1.62
15 sold recently
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https://imgur.com/cohcGty
Single sale at 40 refined in the past 30 days
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/135;3 - Sold for $1.51 (Keys were $1.78) = 0.8483 Keys * 51.11 Refined per Key at the time = 43.33 Refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055323945#!/compare/1571788800/1572048000 - Sold for 26.33 Refined
Given there being multiple marketplace sales just under a Key since you made the suggestion as well as the multiple purchases around 26.33, a range of 26.33 - 43.33 should work.
im not sure if one sale is enough to change the price
This was left up for more sales - now there have been 4 buys at 26.33 https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=135&q=3&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0
Marketplace sales do support a big raise though, but it's hard to ignore those lower sales
I think that a range around 26ref to a key might be too big, right? So, is it safe to say that I should wait for more sales first?