Suggestion: Miami Nights Eliminator's Safeguard at 16–25 keys

Price Suggestion

~54 keys

miami

67 votes up

5 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Thu, 03 Oct 19 12:03:43 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

Miami Nights Eliminator’s Safeguard

Yikes how was this ever 45.

Selling:

https://imgur.com/a/ej6fNXp

https://backpack.tf/item/7957563594

Scrap.tf unsold for 1 month @ 21

https://imgur.com/a/FJGTSQ0 3 sellers @ 29

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1568246400/1568332800

Sold for 16 keys to a known quickbuyer (poorasianboy)

Was up forever at 19 before selling, no bot.tf unfortuantly.

X = 16

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1567209600/1567296000

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4JG668V7 9 at the time of the sale

Added a pro ks tomi for a DBD Hottie’s Hoodie (~20)

Would put this around 10 keys, too low. Should be used there.

Sales 3 - 4:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30369;5;u61

https://backpack.tf/item/7956906758

Sold for $45 3 times

$44.99 / $1.82 = 24.72 keys

X = 25

Sales at:

25 (x3)

Summary:

25 flat is def too high on its own, w/ the month unsold @ 21 and basically month @ 19. (I was watching the classies since I owned one) 16 might be slightly too low (since I don’t think it was ever listed at 16) but given that it couldn't sell at as low as 19, and that 25 flat will be far too high, a range w/ both will give the most accurate mid price. I would rather use the 16 sale then set the low-end w/ the month unsold in scrap.tf at 21, esp w/ as much traffic as scrap.tf gets. If it is unsold there for that long, the price should prob be far lower than scrap’s selling point.

Final Price: 16 - 25 keys

the unsold at 21 on crap.tf (1 month unsold) should point towards the mp.tf sales being high...

i can confirm that the one i quicksold was for sale forever (about 4 weeks between scm, bp classies and mp.tf) at 20 and 19. if it can't sell at 19 or 21, 25 doesn't make much sense :/ I can provide screenshots of my purchase off scm if needed as well (aug 17 or 18th i believe for under 14 keys)

i see the sales, but scratch my head in bafflement

theres 3 sales at 25, its a common trading point. I believe the reason it sold 3 times on marketplace.tf was because it is good gambling fodder - a gambler can cash in $45 and get 45 keys worth of gambling fodder. Not because they actually wanted the hat. https://backpack.tf/item/7956906758 - buyer immediately gambled it away.

oh i understand the reasoning, just have no idea why the 'gamblers' wouldn't have purchased the 2 that were for sale lower. pretty obvious what happened. but i guess sales r sales. so here's another sale - https://imgur.com/a/r4lvmkf (Keys were about $3.11 CDN then so ~13.6 keys). really hate to see gamblers influencing suggestions ;) no buyers to counter that scm sale then or now

5 weeks plus unsold at 21 on crap.tf

think it's pretty safe to rule out the mp.tf sales now

I think there is a good rationale for both sides of the argument here and I don't think there's necessarily a right or wrong. I personally err on the side of using more data points rather than less and if a data point is removed from one side, it should also be removed on the other side, just based on principles of statistics.

Won't go against the votes here