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Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198283314672#!/compare/1565222400/1565481600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026129220#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
Untrace / QS
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079425300#!/compare/1566864000/1568592000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114632766#!/compare/1568505600/1568592000
ummmmmmm
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198371849389#!/compare/1565481600/1565913600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334712990#!/compare/1565827200/1565913600
Sold for 11 keys
sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334712990#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145784505#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000
Sold for 19 keys
Sale 5:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155558267#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138084551#!/compare/1565913600/1566000000
Sold for TW Copper + Showstopper BaL
Copper Mini:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d7734506780721c183e0865
Suggestion for 8.5 keys
BaL Mini:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d8aafef678072503f214951
Suggestion for ~4.2 keys
total is ~13 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZK378LX
B/O of 18 keys
Sale 6:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138084551#!/compare/1566086400/1566172800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1566086400/1566172800
Sold for Static Fuku
use there
Sale 7:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1568505600/1568678400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114632766#!/compare/1568505600/1568592000
Sold for 16 keys
sale 8:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114632766#!/compare/1568505600/1568592000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079425300#!/compare/1566864000/1568592000
uhhhhhh
sale 9:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111191522#!/compare/1566086400/1567641600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198436081260#!/compare/1566172800/1566259200
SCM
Sale 10:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198436081260#!/compare/1566259200/1567468800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1567382400/1567468800
Untrace
Sale 11:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109451379#!/compare/1560902400/1561593600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071427032#!/compare/1561248000/1561593600
Sold for 18 keys
Sale 12:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071427032#!/compare/1561593600/1561680000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095514968#!/compare/1561507200/1561593600
Untrace
Sale 13:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095514968#!/compare/1564531200/1564704000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071368568#!/compare/1564012800/1566604800
Sold with 1 key for KaW Drill
use there
Sale 14 - 16:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/817;5;u56
$39.99 / $1.82 = 21.97 keys <-- https://backpack.tf/item/2206340205
$37.78 / $1.84 = 20.53 keys
$24.95 / $1.83 = 13.63 keys
Sale 17:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1568764800/1568851200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195810811#!/compare/1549843200/1569024000
Sold for 18 keys
Total sales @:
11, 13, 13.63, 16, 18, 18, 19, 20.53, 21.97 keys
Buyers up to 10 keys,
gonna take 14 - 19 keys,
excluding 2 on each end as outliers.
Sales 1,2,8,9,10,12 should be removed, it isn't clear what the cannonball was traded for
Sale 3 is obviously an outlier (quicksell), as he sold this hat for a 42% discount of it's LOWEST value(19 keys)
Sale 5 has wrong data, Copper is priced at LOWEST 10 keys , and Showstopper is priced at LOWEST 5.5 keys, making a 15.5 total not 13
Sale 16 is also at almost a 30% discount of the LOWEST value, therefore it should be excluded as a quicksell, as someone may have just been cashing out
I don't know the kind of mental math you did to estimate this price value but...
Here were the prices of the legitimate sales (4,5,6,7,11,13,14,15) in chronological order: (19,15.5,14,16,18,23.5,21.97,20.5)
In the end, the average of the legitimate sales was about 18.5 keys
You say there are "buyers" at 10 keys as if this has some kind of merit, these are all quicksale buyers and don't contribute to the price of the hat as they will always be looking to buy for 40% off or more.
There is no reason to be "excluding 2 on each end as outliers", with such a small sample of data it is obvious how this would have sever consequences, if the data is within the accepted range of the current price there should be no worry as to if it is an outlier.
I would like to include the fact that I currently obtain this unusual and this is the reason I felt the need to investigate your suggestion. If you wish to input another price suggestion that's fine but I don't think this one is reasonable because of the facts I have listed, thanks.
The sales you listed as 'should be removed' have no impact on the suggestion, they are listed there to show all sales that have happened, whether having an impact on the suggestion or not.
Sale 3 was taken as an outlier / low.
The prices for the Copper + Showstopper BaL are both outdated. They are not worth those prices you listed anymore. You probably missed the suggestions I listed underneath the sale, proving they don't sell for that price anymore.
The discount of Sale 16 is irrelevant. The sale occurred not far after the Crate Depression, where the buyers dropped out on most hats and alot of 3rd gen / 1st gen unusuals took a big hit in price because of the sudden influx in how many of them exist. More supply with no change in demand / less demand, means prices drop.
You're right, buyers don't contribute to the price of the hat. Maybe that's why I excluded Sale 3?
Outliers aren't determined based on the 'current price', they're based on the sales that are found.
But let's say you're right. Let's take 11 - 22 keys, no reason to exclude ANY sales if it affects the range, right? And we meet your criteria of including sales within the current price! perfect!
Oh, the range makes the average 16.5 keys too....
so there's no difference in price, even though I included all the sales? Why, it's almost like I actually thought about this!
Kudos for actually being somewhat transparent and saying you own one of the KaW Cannonballs', but all you're arguments are either false, based off of misread (or unread) information, and biased heavily to try and make the price of the suggestion benefit you. You may not know what kind of mental math I did, but I'd not only question your mental math abilities, but I'd also question your eyesight and reading comprehension. This may be a bit beyond you.
No need for me to resubmit another suggestion based off of what you have said. If you want to try your luck, be my guest. But I don't think it's reasonable, given the 'facts' you have listed.