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Update!
Sale 1: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1564358400/1564444800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088057122#!/compare/1564358400/1564444800
Sold for a clean PE Purple Energy Galvanized Gibus (92 keys) + Strange AWPer Hand (8 keys)
92 + 8 = 100
Mini for Gibus: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017954131#!/compare/1565827200/1565913600
Sold with a duped Terror-Watt Cotton Head (22 keys) + a Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Balloonicorn Sniper Rifle (Field-Tested) (6 keys) for a clean Frostbite Specialized Killstreak Human Cannonball (120 keys)
120 - (22 + 6) = 92
Mini for the Cannon: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061489334#!/compare/1566432000/1566604800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198800376958#!/compare/1566604800/1566691200
Sold for a clean Purple Energy Salty Dog (113 keys) + a clean Circling Heart Caribou Companion (38 keys) + a clean Stormy Storm Surgeon's Stahlhelm (16 keys) + a clean '72 Taunt: Didgeridrongo (6 keys) + a clean Silver Cyclone Taunt: The Skating Scorcher (4.5 keys)
113 + 38 + 16 + 6 + 4 = 177, buyout was 120: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/46NZXVR2
Mini for the Stahlhelm: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101596547#!/compare/1565913600/1568937600 - 16 pure.
Mini for taunt 1: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30839;5;u3004 - sales around 5-7 keys, taking 6.
Mini for the Cotton: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30175;5;u57 - the dupe sold there for 45, so taking 39.99/1.82 = ~22
Sale 2: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076113077#!/compare/1568764800/1568851200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088057122#!/compare/1568764800/1568851200
Sold for a clean Death at Dusk Rebel Rouser (52 keys)
Mini for the Rebel: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d8bc0926780721b3b6e43b8
Sales: 100 and 52. Classies: https://i.imgur.com/tY0C0Z9.png. With unsolds at 100 for 7 months and at 88 for 2 months, going with 52 flat.
There are more sales on the gibus
https://backpack.tf/item/6916450484
https://backpack.tf/item/7550873676
https://backpack.tf/item/3757308011
I think if you make a full suggestion for the gibus, the sale will probably end up lower than 100; in which case you can do 88 - whatever the sale comes out do.
52 is a clear low outlier tbh. https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MX6E0G1Y - buyers as high as 70 (before the crate depression, for what its worth, but my point still stands)
Ive checked all of the sales on the Gibus, too many minis and dead ends for me to be bothered making a full suggestion one, so i just used the only sale i could make something out of. In any case, the sale will not end up lower than 100 or if it does, not by enough to make going 88 flat possible or a range with 88 possible. If there were buyers as high as 70, how come 88 hasn't sold in 2 months? Thats only 18 keys above buy orders for a "50+" key hat. There is nothing to counter 52 here. On a side note, Foamy also approved of 52 flat for now.
Come on, theres plenty of usable sales...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061489334#!/compare/1562630400/1562716800 - Scorching modest + showstopper bad pipes
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MG09D024 - B/O was 140
Probably high outlier
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EEZNV62 - B/O was 120
Hearts TC (142.5, indate)
X = 120
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118150950#!/compare/1566259200/1567123200
Sold for a RoF Tundra
Use there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198183424550#!/compare/1566086400/1567209600
Beams bottle cap + 5 keys
Use there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031126990#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600
Bulk for duped beams tc
Gibus should at least be 92 - 120; although it doesn't really help the cannonball case. I guess the cannonball prob needs more sales at the very least.
Sellers on Gibus: https://i.imgur.com/LUuGoji.png A sale of ~142 capped at 120 won't be usable on it. Like i said, a lot of dead ends :P
Cannon will prolly be left open for a month, yes. If nothing else usable happens in that time, 52 flat will have to do.
I didn’t know this suggestion was up, but I did end up making a full Purple Energy Gibus suggestion and it got accepted (I did it for a different unusual)
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5dbf74896780723e0c7273a4
That would make sale 1 significantly lower
Oh of course, that may help the suggestion out
Yeah, that means this'll have to be resuggested
Sellers down to 76. I was going to say that the sales are discrepant and this can't be priced currently, but 52 may end up where the market hits here
Closing here based on earlier comments. Feel free to resuggest.