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https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/398;5;u17
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1566259200/1566345600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016527684#!/compare/1481673600/1564617600
$39.99 = 22 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140867542#!/compare/1568505600/1568678400
Using on the Jarate
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1563667200/1563753600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376445034#!/compare/1563753600/1563926400
I don't know, the Mann o War was not involved
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376445034#!/compare/1563408000/1563494400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1563148800/1563235200
I don't know, the Tavish Crown was not involved
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140867542#!/compare/1569456000/1569542400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075970209#!/compare/1568937600/1569542400
21 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083872093#!/compare/1566172800/1566259200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1566172800/1566259200
All this stuff, notably a Pro KS Medi Gun Kit
About 8 keys in sweets and the Pro KS Medi is about 22 keys
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/6526;6;uncraftable;kt-3;td-211
30 key buyout https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZKJK000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156001027#!/compare/1565222400/1565308800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1565222400/1565308800
Blizzardy Barnstormer (sellers at 14-16) + 3 keys, less than 20 key value
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4OV922JJ
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1565136000/1565222400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156001027#!/compare/1565136000/1565222400
23 key buyout, sold in less than a day
But after this it sold for the Blizzardy Barnstormer, which is pretty much less than this
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004952793#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238814252#!/compare/1564790400/1566000000
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238814252#!/compare/1564790400/1566000000
Blizzardy Screaming Eagle
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131599141#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
Better used on the Wreath
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215539189#!/compare/1565136000/1565395200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131599141#!/compare/1565308800/1565395200
Added keys to a 22 key unusual?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215539189#!/compare/1565049600/1565136000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131599141#!/compare/1565308800/1565395200
I don't know, the VRH was not involved
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1565049600/1565136000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215539189#!/compare/1565049600/1565136000
Added 4 keys for Death at Dusk VRH
VRH currently has a bot seller at 28 keys, under BP price.
Values the Sack pretty lowly here...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304302520#!/compare/1567209600/1567296000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096105227#!/compare/1567209600/1567296000
(duped) Sold for Sunbeams Hive Minder, in-date at 33 keys
Supporting:
Buyouts in a 2 month span
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YDLL2OJR 8/1/2019 - 28 keys, 30 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EEPGW32 8/5/2019 - 27 keys, 30 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGZL638Q 8/10/2019 - 26 keys, 30 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4RGD5Z82 8/15/2019 - 26 keys, 30 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXQPEVQP 8/20/2019 - 25 keys, 30 keys, 30 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4RGWZGX5 8/25/2019 - 22 keys, 29 keys, 30 keys, 31 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YDLV7DOX 8/30/2019 - 31 keys, 32 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y7D12ZZ8 9/5/2019 - 31 keys, 32 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/425O301V 9/11/2019 - 31 keys, 35 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5R02LZ2 9/15/2019 - 31 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EE0W6LD 9/20/2019 - 28 keys, 31 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZKV72RQ 9/25/2019 - 28 keys, 30 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/46N06KP0 9/30/2019 - 30 keys, 35 keys
Sales:
less than 20 keys
21 keys
22 keys (after 1 month of advertising from 28-22 keys)
23 keys
~24 keys (death at dusk VRH)
30 keys (pro KS medi)
33 keys (sunbeams hive minder)
added keys to 22 key unusual
Going with 21-25 keys. I don't think 30 keys has to be in the range.
More sales:
Sold for a Kill-a-Watt Counterfeit Billycock(Outdated at 11-12), a Haunted Chicken Kiev(~12.5 Keys) and ~3 Keys in Sweets
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141455733#!/compare/1573171200/1573257600
Sold for a Disco Beat Down Rather Festive Tree(29.5 Keys) and 1 Key(30.5 Keys total, round to 31)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196394830#!/compare/1573171200/1573257600
https://backpack.tf/item/918362958
Added 3 Keys for a Starstorm Slumber Executioner(Outdated at 29 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213234076#!/compare/1573171200/1573257600
Few sales that are likely to be higher than your current suggestion, perhaps this needs a bigger range.
And a range that doesn't have a high end that comes from nowhere, as there are no sales at 25.