Resuggestion, thanks to K1ng for the info!

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325595749#!/compare/1567296000/1567382400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838788284#!/compare/1567296000/1567382400

Sold for MG Plat Pickel + 2 keys

use there

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838788284#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198973894950#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205939253#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600

Untrace

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205939253#!/compare/1567814400/1567900800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070705963#!/compare/1567814400/1567900800

Bulk

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070705963#!/compare/1570838400/1570924800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101623903#!/compare/1571184000/1571270400

Sold for 40 keys

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1563840000/1563926400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198909750593#!/compare/1563753600/1563926400

Sold for 50 keys

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198909750593#!/compare/1565049600/1565136000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1565049600/1565136000

Bulky

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198227156248#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

Sold for 15 keys + Showstopper Sorcery

low.

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198227156248#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095022965#!/compare/1566950400/1567036800

Bulk

sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095022965#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100717662#!/compare/1567555200/1567641600

Bulk

K1ng’s Part:

Can't see 40 keys in sale 4. Where does that come from?

The 50 sale is really old and buyer dumped it in that bulk deal that appears to be way lower than 50. Not like that's solid evidence but there's also this:

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y35ZRP90 ----- both sales are unusable, I'm afraid

I would rather go with 40 flat if there's evidence of that, of course.

A:

forgot a compare link for 40:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070705963#!/compare/1571184000/1571270400

it seemed weird to me that it left Reflex's bp on the 13th and entered Downie's on the 16th, and checking both dates showed that Downie's keys (the 40 sale) entered on the 16th in Reflex's bp. I'm not certain why, but histories match up, as well as ID's.