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Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071082937#!/compare/1571875200/1571961600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1571875200/1571961600
QS
sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1571875200/1571961600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304602112#!/compare/1566086400/1571961600
Sold for 11 keys
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198972294135#!/compare/1572220800/1572307200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083164418#!/compare/1571961600/1572307200
Sold for ~10 keys
sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083164418#!/compare/1572912000/1573084800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196410274#!/compare/1572825600/1572912000
Untrace
sale 5:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196410274#!/compare/1572912000/1572998400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254822867#!/compare/1572825600/1572912000
Sold for 10 keys
sale 6:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254822867#!/compare/1572825600/1572912000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198963636134#!/compare/1572825600/1572912000
Sold with ~2 keys in sweets for Spell
Sale 7:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198963636134#!/compare/1572998400/1573084800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200385228#!/compare/1572998400/1573084800
Bulky
Sale 8:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200385228#!/compare/1573257600/1573344000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198845407723#!/compare/1573257600/1573344000
Sold for SGG Schuaden(12) + ~1 key in sweets
Total is 13 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVRWV8JW
B/O of 12 keys, capping
sale 9:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198845407723#!/compare/1573257600/1573344000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068828299#!/compare/1573257600/1573344000
Untrace
sale 10:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068828299#!/compare/1573516800/1573603200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208914563#!/compare/1573516800/1573603200
Sold for 10 keys
Sale 11:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208914563#!/compare/1573516800/1573603200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802641888#!/compare/1573516800/1573603200
Sold for ~10 keys
Sale 12:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802641888#!/compare/1573603200/1573689600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198971964068#!/compare/1573516800/1573603200
Sold with ~8 keys in sweets for Max Head(~19)
Total is ~11 keys
Sale 13:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198971964068#!/compare/1573516800/1573603200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040220388#!/compare/1573603200/1573689600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1573603200/1573689600
Bulky then QS
sale 14:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30479;5;u6
$24.5 / $1.83 = 13.39 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/3065771416
Total sales @:
10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 12, 13 keys
buyers up to ~9.5 keys,
sellers down to 13 keys,
taking 10 - 13 keys.
You don't think 13 is a little high?: https://i.gyazo.com/a13be28d6385ccdcb5927596794e72f5.mp4
In cases like this, I've almost always treated long-time unsolds as ceilings that one shouldn't go over.
I don't really see a problem with including sales equal to unsolds. (to keep up the metaphor, you can touch the ceiling, just not go past it)
Is there something I am missing in my rationale, something I'm not considering?
I feel like you have a case with the ceiling but the ceiling here seems inconsistent. I mean, 2 and 4 months unsold respectively? One of your sales at 13 is also basically an item sale.
It seems like the ceiling here can't be consistently hit; so why should we include it in a range?
Looking a bit more into it, seems like the listing that is supposedly unsold for 4 months is a ghost listing; Sujak currently owns the hat and none are currently listed on MPTF. (the ghost listing is actually the only MPTF sale)
I'm not sure how I could go about proving that the ceiling is being hit consistently. there are two 13 key sales (1 capped), one of which took about 2 months to sell, and the capped one took just 2 days.
I suppose it would depend on what the criteria for 'consistent' would be. Time? # of sales? content of sales? Unsolds?
To me, I'd say that in this case, since someone has been able to sell their hat for the listed price in the same time frame and shorter as the age of the unsold, including the sale should be fine to include.
I'm always interested in more opinions and takes that I probably haven't considered.
I have to agree with scourge here. As he said, one of the unsolds is not even an unsold. And the sale that capped at 12 would've been 13 if not for the B/O. Surely that's enough proof to justify including 13 in this case?
Lol I didn't even realize one of them was a ghost listing; yeah this is fine.