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Used as a mini in this suggestion : https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5da63b0b6780721ba109772f
Proof of the sales
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057160393#!/compare/1567987200/1568073600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083134207#!/compare/1567987200/1568073600
90 Keys
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083134207#!/compare/1569110400/1569196800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050509345#!/compare/1569110400/1569196800
190 Keys
Taking a range. Thanks!
New sale : Stormy Stash + Frostbite L'homme Burglerre + D@D Fruit Shoot for Arcana Tsaarbosh + 10Keys
Seller end: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008994962#!/compare/1576454400/1576540800
Buyers end: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142892266#!/compare/1576454400/1576540800
Mini Stash
1- https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190714350#!/compare/1574640000/1574726400 (60K) Appears to be resold for 70K on sale 2 in the same day
2- https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190714350#!/compare/1574726400/1574812800 (70K)
3- https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022071751#!/compare/1574553600/1574640000 (Bulk trade for a phosphorous Belt)
----> https://backpack.tf/item/1665936067 (History of the belt)
4- https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144928679#!/compare/1574553600/1574640000 (Bulk for a stormy viewfinder)
5- https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/54;5;u29 (Sold on marketplace twice)
----> First for 165$ on Nov.5 / Keys were at 1.77$ = 93K
----> Second for 154 on Nov.21 / Keys were at 1.75$ = 88K
Sales at 60 (excluding) / Bulk / 70 / 88 / 93 (rounding these last two sales to 90)
Going with 70-90
Mini on Fruit
1- https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061248547#!/compare/1575504000/1575676800 (Sold for a Morning Glory Tricorne) Indate at 35
2-https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142892266#!/compare/1576195200/1576281600 (Sold for smoking team captain) Outdated at 36
Can't track anymore sales, Going with 35
-----------------------------------//--------------------------------------
Frostbite L'homme Burglerre Indate at 53
Total Sale = 70-90 [ Stash] + 53 (L'homme Burglerre) + 35 (Fruit) - 10K (added in the trade on seller end) = 155-168
On the stash marketplace sales, the person paying 93 seems to be the one that resold it later for less; its likely best not to rely on those sales; especially since the belt sale on it goes against a raise of that magnitude I'd probably use 70 for the mini.
On the fruit:
The sale for the TC actually added 3 keys, so that would be lower. It also has 2 marketplace sales at 45$ and 49$ respectively (27 and 29 keys respectively at their key prices that day)
The tc has a couple of odd sales; it took 3 months to sell on scrap for 30:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850215243#!/compare/1575590400/1575676800
Buyer then flipped it with some adds for a smoking crones which was bought for a dbd billy (24) and some ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074178367#!/compare/1575590400/1575676800
And then it sold for a c9 combustible?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040116942#!/compare/1576108800/1576195200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074178367#!/compare/1575676800/1576195200
Histories only match on the combust
So thats 2 sales lower than the scrap sale; at 30 that sale would be 27, so 35 is probably high on that.
All in all the sale will probably end up around the 140 mark.
The buyer from this sale listed at ~180 and already lowered to ~170 (which is taken at keys' current low conversion rate, at their regular rates it would be ~160 ish).
While the new sale supports the raise, his relisting also supports our initial concerns that 190 is really high (classic collector situation where the buyer ended up dumping it as huge overpay on something else).
At this point I would likely go with 90-140 if you wish to update it now (which may be a decent option given that a raise is clearly warranted), and otherwise you could close and wait for the seller to settle.