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~132.5 keys
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Unusual Patriot Peak Wicked Wood
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Sale 1: 149k

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30743;5;u126

https://backpack.tf/item/8164894202

$270 on 10/20


Sale 2: bulkish

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353908023#!/compare/1572307200/1572393600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070705963#!/compare/1572307200/1572393600

Scorching boa - burning pomade


Sale 3: no mini, ~190 - 210

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070705963#!/compare/1572652800/1572739200

Miasma coldfront commander + valiant wooloo (110k)

Commander listed for ~100k, would make this sale 210k if sells, will keep an eye out


Sale 4: 275k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077784491#!/compare/1572220800/1572393600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114545227#!/compare/1572307200/1572393600

All things indate, 100 + 173 + 2


Sale 5: using there

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991111981#!/compare/1573084800/1573171200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990998139#!/compare/1573084800/1573171200

5d blast def - 5d warhood


The bulkish sale somewhat supports it being worth between 180-200.

Sale 3 supports the data somewhat, I can't see the coldfront being sold for much less.

Taking a tentative 150-275 here and looking out for more data.


EDIT: even tho im using sale 5 there, it supports the lowend here considering the blastdef is 245.

would be better used on wraith anyway, but no sales on the handcraft

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033378852#!/compare/1574208000/1574294400


    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198869506063#!/compare/1574121600/1574208000

    50k + puzzle prehistoric (67.5) + buds (3k) + radiance bat hat (43) (large mass of sales at $75 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31058;5;u130)


    Taunt should get capped at sellers at 12k and duped bicorne with seller at 28, even if sales are higher they wouldn't be by much. Regardless of what they end up being, this should support the middle of the range at 200 or so.

      There are strong indicators that 275 is too high; what makes it a lot easier to decide here is that the buyer from that 275 sale is one of the 200 sellers, so at the very least that should not be valued over 200, but more plausibly it should simply be considered an outlier.


      That said, the bulky/other sales do all seem to indicate that 150 flat is too low; my assumption is that this should realistically end up ~150-200, potentially by evaluating the last sale mentioned in the comments.