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Sale 1: 149k
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30743;5;u126
https://backpack.tf/item/8164894202
$270 on 10/20
Sale 2: bulkish
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353908023#!/compare/1572307200/1572393600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070705963#!/compare/1572307200/1572393600
Scorching boa - burning pomade
Sale 3: no mini, ~190 - 210
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070705963#!/compare/1572652800/1572739200
Miasma coldfront commander + valiant wooloo (110k)
Commander listed for ~100k, would make this sale 210k if sells, will keep an eye out
Sale 4: 275k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077784491#!/compare/1572220800/1572393600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114545227#!/compare/1572307200/1572393600
All things indate, 100 + 173 + 2
Sale 5: using there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991111981#!/compare/1573084800/1573171200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990998139#!/compare/1573084800/1573171200
5d blast def - 5d warhood
The bulkish sale somewhat supports it being worth between 180-200.
Sale 3 supports the data somewhat, I can't see the coldfront being sold for much less.
Taking a tentative 150-275 here and looking out for more data.
EDIT: even tho im using sale 5 there, it supports the lowend here considering the blastdef is 245.
Several sellers up at or below 200 Keys. 275 will be high.
https://imgur.com/a/oqdwpdv
https://backpack.tf/item/8207900481
https://backpack.tf/item/8160775312
https://backpack.tf/item/8185183824
new sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033378852#!/compare/1578182400/1578268800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799252331#!/compare/1578009600/1578355200
no mini on conga but this is probably lower than 150 even, what do i do
would be better used on wraith anyway, but no sales on the handcraft
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033378852#!/compare/1574208000/1574294400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198869506063#!/compare/1574121600/1574208000
50k + puzzle prehistoric (67.5) + buds (3k) + radiance bat hat (43) (large mass of sales at $75 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31058;5;u130)
Taunt should get capped at sellers at 12k and duped bicorne with seller at 28, even if sales are higher they wouldn't be by much. Regardless of what they end up being, this should support the middle of the range at 200 or so.
There are strong indicators that 275 is too high; what makes it a lot easier to decide here is that the buyer from that 275 sale is one of the 200 sellers, so at the very least that should not be valued over 200, but more plausibly it should simply be considered an outlier.
That said, the bulky/other sales do all seem to indicate that 150 flat is too low; my assumption is that this should realistically end up ~150-200, potentially by evaluating the last sale mentioned in the comments.