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Two recent sales on this tumor warpaint:
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074149928#!/compare/1574121600/1574208000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186922501#!/compare/1574121600/1574208000
Sold for 40 keys pure
Sale 2:
https://i.imgur.com/ikQGBQP.png
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Tumor%20Toasted%20War%20Paint%20%28Minimal%20Wear%29
https://i.imgur.com/9c7AiTf.png
https://i.imgur.com/IehZu7P.png
$71.31/2.35 = 30.34 = 30 keys
Taking 30-40 keys
Found a new sale while updating a medi gun
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091863983#!/compare/1574380800/1575417600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186922501#!/compare/1574640000/1574726400
Hot Masked Mender Medi MW (32) + Cool Masked Mender Medi FN (50)
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d937ae4d381721b43082f8a
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5de7dca29af2ab7f410ad107
Both medi guns have in-date suggestions
Buyout was 90 https://gyazo.com/0de161d7b45cd55bf48ffca16cf65044
Well, this trade looks like an outlier
However one thing to note is that buyers on the SCM page are currently at $67, so it was less than 2 keys off of buy orders
And since the SCM sale was on Oct 4
That means it sold within one day, here is the compare link where the original owner lists it on SCM on Oct 4 through 7 (And since it sold Oct 4, clearly it was listed on Oct 4)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017954131#!/compare/1570147200/1570406400
And Evan (seller from the 2 medi guns trade) did tell me that he bought it for much lower than the price was when it was listed on Marketplace.
Unfortunately I don't have proof of that conversation anymore, or proof of the previous price on Marketplace