Non-event suggestion. Bit too risky

Bubbling Salty Dog

Mptf sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/611;5;u34

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Sold for $35 on Sep 29, 2019. Key price on that day was $1.81, which gives us 19.34 keys.

Rounding to 19 keys.

https://backpack.tf/item/614406299 - History

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y35ON6K6 - B/o of 22 keys.

Taking the sale as 19 keys.

Sold for $35 on Nov 16, 2019. Key price on that day was $1.80, which gives us 19.44 keys.

Rounding to 19 keys.

Couldn't find the history or b/o.

Sold for $25 on Nov 24, 2019. Key price on that day was $1.75, which gives us 14.29 keys.

Rounding to 14 keys.

Couldn't find the history or b/o.

Sold for $53 on Dec 10, 2019. Key price on that day was $1.68, which gives us 31.55 keys.

Rounding to 32 keys.

https://backpack.tf/item/7907705068 - History

No b/o found.

Mannco.store sale

https://mannco.store/item/9231

https://mannco.store/item/1

Sold for $30 on 16 Nov, 2019. Key price on that day was $1.64, which gives us 18.29 keys.

Rounding to 18 keys.

https://backpack.tf/item/8143454013 - History

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087838937#!/compare/1569715200/1569888000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198973894950#!/compare/1569715200/1569974400

Bulk?

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198973894950#!/compare/1569974400/1570060800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107995248#!/compare/1569974400/1570060800

Untrace.

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198980098026#!/compare/1571875200/1572220800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985265870#!/compare/1572134400/1572220800

Untrace/scammed.

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074718149#!/compare/1573862400/1574208000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353251333#!/compare/1573776000/1573948800

Most likely gambled.

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964478868#!/compare/1574035200/1574121600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962729530#!/compare/1574035200/1574121600

Bulk.

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962729530#!/compare/1574121600/1574208000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033694310#!/compare/1574121600/1574208000

Sold for 15 keys, 51 ref (15.9 keys) rounding to 16 keys.

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033694310#!/compare/1574208000/1574294400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1574208000/1574294400

Sold for 15 keys, 4 ref (15.07 keys) rounding to 15 keys.

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Some info

https://backpack.tf/item/8143454013

I'm excluding sales 6 and 7 as Filosofem bought it and resold it for lower in 1 day.

Continuing on

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Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198928421771#!/compare/1574035200/1574121600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970932773#!/compare/1573948800/1574121600

Bulk.

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970932773#!/compare/1574121600/1574553600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1574380800/1574553600

Sold for Duped Chromatic Corruption Nuts and Bolts Troublemaker's Tossle Cap.

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Mini for Duped Chromatic Corruption Nuts and Bolts Troublemaker's Tossle Cap

https://backpack.tf/item/1104302338 - History

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284481226#!/compare/1572825600/1576627200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1573516800/1573689600

Untrace.

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214566535#!/compare/1572307200/1572480000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284481226#!/compare/1571356800/1572739200

Untrace.

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044934255#!/compare/1570147200/1570233600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214566535#!/compare/1570147200/1570320000

Untrace.

Mptf sale on Oct 4, 2019 matches up with the item history.

Sold for $21, key price on that day was $1.82, which gives us 11.54 keys.

Rounding to 12 keys.

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No b/o found, taking the sale as 12 keys.

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1575936000/1576195200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075024818#!/compare/1575936000/1576195200

Untrace.

Sales are at:

12

14

18

19

19

32

https://imgur.com/a/9bvI8AB - 24 days unsold at 16.8 keys, 8 days unsold at 20 keys.

Buyers up to 15 keys, successful - https://imgur.com/a/hPDmVz3

Going with 14 - 19 keys per Foamy's advice - https://imgur.com/a/TmlrJ4M

Taking the range as 14 - 19 keys!