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For pricing event 2019:
One sale for 20 keys (using an 18 key hat 2 keys and a 1.39ref item)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198432540484#!/compare/1572652800/1572825600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271915998#!/compare/1572566400/1572652800
Sale for 22 keys (an 8 key and a 14 key hat)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198432540484#!/compare/1572134400/1572307200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071588645#!/compare/1572220800/1572307200
Links to hat histories because the hats don’t show up in the second compare, but do in the histories https://backpack.tf/item/7955932635 https://backpack.tf/item/7957157478
sale 1 uses an outdated hat, so does sale 2.
you need minis
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30069;5;u18 - Sold for $22.53 (low)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173442901#!/compare/1577836800/1577923200 - You paid 17 Keys, so this should be included
https://imgur.com/a/ciZLgde - 2 Month Seller at 20 Keys
https://backpack.tf/item/4964179647
https://backpack.tf/item/6964438921
The hats in your sales are outdated, so you would need to Mini (find sales for) those.
That said, the sales themselves are outdated as well, so I would go 17 flat here.