resuggestion thanks k1ng

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e2f8d07c1cb72435b18ed42

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30704;5;u101

Nov 16 - $124.08 = 69 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104472296#!/compare/1572739200/1573689600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111419292#!/compare/1573862400/1574035200

This looks the most likely to be the Marketplace sale

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036385359#!/compare/1572393600/1572480000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048334414#!/compare/1572393600/1572480000

i dont know

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312480435#!/compare/1572998400/1573084800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048334414#!/compare/1573084800/1573171200

Sold to bot for 55 keys + 14 refined

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312480435#!/compare/1573862400/1574380800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198249078668#!/compare/1574294400/1574380800

66 keys

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198249078668#!/compare/1574380800/1574467200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1574380800/1574467200

QS to Julia

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1578009600/1578096000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418622751#!/compare/1577491200/1578096000

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVRDPK82

Looks like it sold for Julia's buyout of 56 keys

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212750627#!/compare/1572912000/1572998400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160856661#!/compare/1572912000/1572998400

Using there

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418622751#!/compare/1579132800/1579219200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165523142#!/compare/1579132800/1579219200

Blizzardy Storm Head Warmer (41 keys) + 16 keys + insignificant sweets

= 57 keys

60 key buyout https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0D86P5Z

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165523142#!/compare/1579305600/1579392000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069659994#!/compare/1579305600/1579392000

Added 7 keys for Orbiting Fire Villain's Veil, use on the Veil

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096856475#!/compare/1579564800/1579651200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198237193302#!/compare/1579564800/1579651200

62 keys

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267226056#!/compare/1575504000/1575590400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1575504000/1575590400

Scorching Detective Noir, Duped

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198314374660#!/compare/1577491200/1577750400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1577491200/1577664000

Noir later sold for 80 keys

low there and high here -- not using

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267226056#!/compare/1576281600/1576368000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334946156#!/compare/1576281600/1576368000

Haunted Ghosts Winter Woodsman, use there

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1576368000/1576454400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334946156#!/compare/1576368000/1576454400

After buying for the Woodsman, it got QSed to stn.tf anyway for 48 keys + 50 refined

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1577491200/1577577600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050310748#!/compare/1577491200/1577577600

untraceable, might be 55 keys though

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1574208000/1574294400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099187096#!/compare/1572652800/1574726400

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0DLOR9X

64 keys, the histories on the 64 key stack look weird but it's because the BP it came from is poorly loaded with a 3 week gap

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312480435#!/compare/1576022400/1576281600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099187096#!/compare/1576281600/1576368000

509 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30704&q=5&ef=It%27s%20a%20mystery%20to%20everyone&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/9fa4c05e2e2996d2b1993267f0edec34

its most likely this 55 key buy order from bot.tf

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312480435#!/compare/1578528000/1578787200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050236510#!/compare/1578614400/1578787200

57 keys

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069980430#!/compare/1572480000/1572566400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160856661#!/compare/1572480000/1572566400

Bulk

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https://backpack.tf/u/76561198944403521

went to a scammer then QS to stn.tf

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1573084800/1573171200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063102194#!/compare/1573171200/1574467200

untraceable, only 19 keys + 19 refined matches

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118744277#!/compare/1573603200/1573689600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1573603200/1573689600

Bulk

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1574294400/1574380800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275979249#!/compare/1574294400/1574380800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275979249#!/compare/1574380800/1574467200

idk what going on, but since both unusuals are in-date, this would be an outlier for this pullover

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040585908#!/compare/1574985600/1575072000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285967572#!/compare/1574985600/1575072000

i dont know

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285967572#!/compare/1575849600/1575936000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1575849600/1575936000

QS to Rubi then the Neutron Killer Exclusive was bought

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1576972800/1577059200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011913661#!/compare/1576886400/1577059200

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4JG089DV

idk but likely sold to rubi's buyout of 56 keys 50 refined

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011913661#!/compare/1578873600/1578960000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361891514#!/compare/1574467200/1578873600

Anti Freeze Little Buddy (53 keys), other keys seem to be uninvolved

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Sales:

48 + 50 refined

55

55

56

56 + 50 refined

57

57

62

64

66

69

Sellers:

https://gyazo.com/61fdae6231fdd202dbf5562acf257bee

60 keys 1 day

65 keys 3 days

65 keys 1 week

70 keys 2 days

Buyers: 44 keys x2, 43 keys x2

going with a range suggested by a moderator:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e2f8d07c1cb72435b18ed42