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Resuggestion.
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068910184#!/compare/1572739200/1572825600
?
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068910184#!/compare/1575763200/1575849600
Sold with 13 keys for a Purple Confetti War Pig (55)
55-13=42 keys
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832602199#!/compare/1576800000/1577145600
1:1 with Strange Spec KS Machina
Since marketplace sales are way above the unsuccessful sellers on backpack.tf
https://backpack.tf/stats/Strange/Specialized%20Killstreak%20Machina/Tradable/Craftable
Buyer at 13ish, unsuccessful sellers at 15, so taking the average of 14k
Sale 4:
There was a sale on marketplace.tf which was discovered by Foamy
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30351;5;u11
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
November 30th
51/1.72=29.65, rounding it to 30.
Calling 14 an outlier, and going with 30-42.
55 for the War Pig was outdated when you made this. It has these sales...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068910184#!/compare/1577491200/1577577600 - Sparkling Lights El Mostacho (34 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047887998#!/compare/1577577600/1577836800 - Duped Circling Heart Sergeant's Drill Hat (38.5 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012004403#!/compare/1578009600/1578096000 - Circling Heart Tossle (37.5 Keys) + 5 Keys + ~3 Keys of Items
34 - 46 will work for the War Pig, which averages to 40 Keys, making Sale 2 27 Keys.
The Mostacho has One sale for 34 Keys here...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1582502400/1582588800
The Drill has these sales...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122107265#!/compare/1577491200/1577577600 - 34 Keys (8 used for the taunt)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198945865817#!/compare/1577318400/1577577600 - 8 for the taunt
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142892266#!/compare/1577923200/1578009600 - 33 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047887998#!/compare/1577836800/1577923200 - Frostbite Shooter's Sola Topi (43.5 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261003871#!/compare/1579305600/1579392000 - Burning Flames Sultan's Ceremonial (41 Keys)
https://imgur.com/a/1DPFpT1 - Buyout of 40 Keys on the Sultan's sale
33 - 44 will work.
The Topi has these sales...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047887998#!/compare/1578009600/1578096000 - 41 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007030589#!/compare/1578009600/1578182400 - Sold + T-W Kiss King + 1 Key for an Orbiting Fire TC (use there)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007030589#!/compare/1578873600/1579046400 - Orbiting Fire Le Party Phantom (33 Keys) + 13 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802184359#!/compare/1582502400/1583625600 - Sold + 9 Keys for a Duped GBH Halogen (no sales)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257210962#!/compare/1579651200/1579737600 - Green Energy Screamin' Eagle + 4 Keys (use there)
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/158;5;u87 - $79.99 (45 Keys)
41 - 46 will work.
The Tossle has these sales...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051798340#!/compare/1581033600/1581292800 - 30 Keys
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/150;5;u19 - $75 (42 Keys), $80 (45 Keys), $100 (high) and $110 (high)
https://backpack.tf/item/268266616 - History for $75
https://backpack.tf/item/281694475 - History for $80
https://imgur.com/a/Wxfr3ly - 18 Day Seller at 36 Keys. Seller at 43 is duped. Buyers at 29.5 Keys.
30 - 45 will work.
More Toque sales...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182420525#!/compare/1579996800/1580083200 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182420525#!/compare/1580688000/1580860800 - 16 Keys to a buy order
https://backpack.tf/item/7957323715 - Gambled to no end
https://imgur.com/a/kczLf3K - 17 Day Seller at 30 Keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6918473736
I would go 27 - 30 for the Toque