https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1115;5;u3001

Dec 19 - $20 = 12 keys

Jan 6 - $19 = 10.5 keys

Jan 15 - $15.15 = buy order

Feb 6 - $20 = 11.4 keys

Feb 9 - $20 = 11.2 keys

Feb 16 - $20 = 11.3 keys

Feb 17 - $20 = 11.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6858020677

https://backpack.tf/item/5087834876

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https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=1115&q=5&ef=Showstopper&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/9ddb3231aa208b1e12c04289383d1af7

1 @ 9 keys, 30.00 ref 11/26/2019

1 @ 9 keys, 30.00 ref 11/26/2019

1 @ 10 keys 12/9/2019

1 @ 10 keys 12/22/2019

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1574640000/1574726400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970426640#!/compare/1573776000/1574726400

This is one of the 11/26 bot.tf sales.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1575763200/1575849600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056665335#!/compare/1575763200/1575849600

This is most likely the 12/9 bot.tf sale.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1576886400/1576972800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056665335#!/compare/1576800000/1576972800

This is most likely the 12/22 bot.tf sale.

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344933095#!/compare/1577318400/1579046400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117597416#!/compare/1569801600/1579046400

Untraceable

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058974390#!/compare/1581465600/1581552000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1581465600/1581552000

Bulk

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1581724800/1581811200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068910184#!/compare/1581724800/1581811200

Untraceable, but 30 refined matches with near id 8510072704

So it likely sold for it's buyout of 8 keys and 30 refined https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZKGKLE0

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038441461#!/compare/1578009600/1579478400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109986831#!/compare/1577923200/1578009600

Unique

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109986831#!/compare/1579392000/1579478400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358932637#!/compare/1579305600/1579392000

Unique

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358932637#!/compare/1579392000/1579478400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841091908#!/compare/1578441600/1579478400

Crafted

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306076386#!/compare/1576368000/1576540800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1576454400/1576540800

Sold to a bot

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056665335#!/compare/1577404800/1577577600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1577491200/1577577600

Quicksell

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318065526#!/compare/1581552000/1581638400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082430898#!/compare/1581465600/1581638400

Bulk for keys

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116779194#!/compare/1581638400/1581724800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138697433#!/compare/1581638400/1581724800

Bulk

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116779194#!/compare/1581984000/1582156800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109756155#!/compare/1582070400/1582156800

Bulk

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1575244800/1575331200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075290980#!/compare/1575244800/1575331200

Quicksell

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056665335#!/compare/1576022400/1576108800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1576022400/1576108800

Quicksell to bot

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1580169600/1580256000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071075968#!/compare/1580256000/1580342400

Untraceable

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Sales:

~8.55

~9.55

~9.55

10

10

10.5

11.2

11.3

11.4

12

Sellers:

https://gyazo.com/af56e85f9c41f940cb2c398855ecaba4

10 keys for 4 days

11 keys for 5 months (but listed at $24.99 which is closer to 14 keys)

And meanwhile being listed at $24.99, it's way higher than all of the other MP sellers

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1115;5;u3001

https://gyazo.com/d9178ee2ec69a1f13cd9fad3be0dee68

$20 = ~11.3 keys

$22.22 = 12 keys

Doesn't make sense to exclude 11.2-11.4 because of one seller with a low buyout when realistically no one would buy their MP listing if there's four for less

So I think I want to go with 8.5-11.5 keys