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This could use a 2nd update now.
Sale 1: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1581897600/1581984000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108797381#!/compare/1581897600/1581984000
10 keys and 20 ref.
https://backpack.tf/item/4697400414 - i sold for 14 pure here, but it resold to R+ubi.
Sale 2: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068513116#!/compare/1579651200/1581465600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286708975#!/compare/1579651200/1579996800
?
Sale 3: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286708975#!/compare/1580947200/1581638400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354979270#!/compare/1581379200/1581724800
10 keys, sum metal
Sale 4: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354979270#!/compare/1581724800/1582070400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085983488#!/compare/1581552000/1581984000
Gave away for free, like legit wtf lmao
Sale 5: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/342;5;u61 - 30/1.75 = ~17
Sale 6: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/342;5;u61 - 27.78/1.79 = ~16
Sale 7: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/342;5;u61 - 24.99/1.77 = ~14
Sales: 10, 10, 17, 16 and 14. Classies: https://i.imgur.com/zFAU7Di.gifv. 14 unbumped. Going with 10-17 for now.
This has been a tricky one since there has been overwhelming evidence that 17 would be too high most of the time this has been open. However, during the discussion we had on what range to do instead, two new sales appeared on marketplace which back up 17 as a data point.
With that in mind, I suppose this ends up being good enough after all.