(I made an error for the Marketplace stats.)

Strange Damascus & Mahogany War Paint (Factory New)

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Damascus%20%26%20Mahogany%20War%20Paint%20%28Factory%20New%29

Dividing by the average price of a key on that day.

1 sold on January 16th, 2020:

$28.49/$2.45 = 11.63 ~ 11.6 keys

1 sold on January 18th:

$24.01/$2.45 = 9.8 keys

1 sold on January 21st:

$51.63/$2.42 = 21.33 ~ 21.3 keys

1 sold on February 10th:

$46.00/$2.42 = 19.01 ~ 19 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/17234;11;w1;pk234

Dividing by the average price of a key on that day.

1 sold on February 26th:

$16.21/$1.77 = 9.16 ~ 9.2 keys

1 sold on March 1st:

$33.99/$1.73 = 19.65 ~ 19.7 keys

Taking 11.6 - 21.3 keys as the range.