Sale 1:

Sold for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121345519#!/compare/1583712000/1583971200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970517336#!/compare/1524355200/1583971200

https://backpack.tf/item/1653103448

= 11 keys

Sale 2:

Sold with ~1 key in metal for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1585180800/1585267200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198980092941#!/compare/1585180800/1585267200

https://backpack.tf/item/4167715445

= 10 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for ~9.5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304080170#!/compare/1581033600/1581120000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198374206487#!/compare/1581033600/1581120000

https://backpack.tf/item/7986893508

= 9.5 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 9 keys + some ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1579046400/1579132800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198217674853#!/compare/1578700800/1579132800

https://backpack.tf/item/1040818224

X = 9

Sale 5:

Sold for ~8.5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075597508#!/compare/1579132800/1579219200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192484517#!/compare/1579132800/1579219200

X = 8.5

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/417;5;u33

$22, Jan 14th

$15, Jan 18th

$28.28, Feb 12th

https://backpack.tf/item/908787205 - Jan 14th sale

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4W6ZL29Z - no B/O

https://backpack.tf/item/1653103448 - Feb 12th

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZK65OWQ - No B/O

Can’t find Jan 18th history

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YDLJ65QR - No important B/Os here

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-01-14&price=22 - $22 / $1.77 = 12.43 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-01-18&price=15 - $15 / $1.78 = 8.43 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-12&price=28.28 - $28.28 / $1.75 = 16.16 keys

Rounds to:

12 keys

8.5 keys

16 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7986893508 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/4167715445 (#3-8)

https://backpack.tf/item/1040818224 (#9 & #10)

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136525279#!/compare/1580774400/1580860800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066353866#!/compare/1580688000/1580860800

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066353866#!/compare/1580860800/1581033600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304080170#!/compare/1580947200/1581033600

#3

Sold with a key and some metal for Blizzardy Storm Hermes

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1578873600/1579046400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198329076723#!/compare/1578787200/1579046400

Better to use on the Hermes.

#4

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198329076723#!/compare/1579564800/1579651200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1579564800/1579651200

#5

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198980092941#!/compare/1585267200/1585353600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147#!/compare/1585267200/1585353600

#6

Sold for 10 keys + 10 ref?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323414731#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9QQ1O2D - B/O of 13, not convinced it sold for 10 keys and 10 ref. Even if that is correct, it’d fit in the range.

#7

Bulk for DBD Screamin’ Eagle

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323414731#!/compare/1585785600/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

Using on the Eagle.

#8

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147#!/compare/1585958400/1586044800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132767478#!/compare/1585958400/1586044800

#9

Sold for Aces Runner’s Warm-Up

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198217674853#!/compare/1579132800/1579219200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075597508#!/compare/1579132800/1579219200

Better off being used on the Warm-Up.

#10

Untraceable, only the Black Box matches.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192484517#!/compare/1579305600/1579478400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162607052#!/compare/1579305600/1579392000

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162607052#!/compare/1579392000/1579478400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086749028#!/compare/1579305600/1579392000

#12

Sold for a bunch of cheap items

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086749028#!/compare/1579392000/1579478400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010989720#!/compare/1579478400/1579824000

Not the best sale to be using, especially considering all the pure sales we have.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/9NaIBGG.png

https://backpack.tf/item/1358635890 - 13 keys

Buyers at ~8.1 keys

Sales at:

8.5 (2x)

9

9.5

10

11

12

16

16 is an outlier, excluding.

Average price from 8.5-12 is above 10, so we round to the nearest integer.

Taking 9-12.