Sale 1:

Sold for 36 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800

Byer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198187599807#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800

https://backpack.tf/item/7957200788

36 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 28 keys (buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198302774496#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

https://backpack.tf/item/7956978679

https://i.imgur.com/Tio18ag.png - bot.tf confirms

28 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30567;5;u56

$72, Jan 24th

$70, Jan 27th

$69, Jan 27th

$72, Jan 29th

$74.99, Feb 10th

$68.95, Feb 16th

$79.99, March 29th

No snapshot history on bot.tf, so we can’t find B/Os there.

https://backpack.tf/item/7956978679 - March 29th, possibly Jan 24th too (the sale from Most Wanted to Pupper Chan isn’t traceable, not including below)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-01-24&price=72 - $72 / $1.79 = 40.22 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-29&price=79.99 - $79.99 / $1.69 = 47.33 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7955851339 - Feb 16th

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-16&price=68.95 - $68.95 / $1.77 = 38.95 keys

Couldn’t find any other histores

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-01-27&price=70 - $70 / $1.77 = 39.55 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-01-27&price=69 - $69 / $1.77 = 38.98 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-01-29&price=72 - $72 / $1.76 = 40.91 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-10&price=74.99 - $74.99 / $1.78 = 42.13 keys

After rounding, we have:

39 keys (2x)

40 keys (2x)

47 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957200788 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956978679 (#2 & #3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7955851339 (#4-6)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956315054 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/7956206768 - gambled/scrap

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198964323363#!/compare/1580601600/1580688000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1580601600/1580688000

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198834678807#!/compare/1581292800/1583280000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123631904#!/compare/1581638400/1582848000

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059450002#!/compare/1585440000/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000

https://i.imgur.com/Tio18ag.png - labelled as 23 keys

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1580256000/1580342400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075415934#!/compare/1580601600/1581033600

#5

Untraceable, probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281630040#!/compare/1581379200/1581465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071772361#!/compare/1581379200/1581465600

#6

Untraceable, 8 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071772361#!/compare/1581379200/1581465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1581379200/1581465600

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/78hxgbC.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7955851197 - 35 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956978679 - 35 keys

Sales at:

28

36

39 (2x)

40 (2x)

41

42

47

47 is an outlier given current sellers. Excluding 47.

Hesitant to include anything higher than the pure sale at 36 due to sellers, and the fact that everything higher than that was a marketplace sale. However, there are too many sales to exclude. If I were to exclude them, I’d also exclude 28 as it would look like an outlier, but if I keep the marketplace sales and the sale at 28, then we would have a median of 35, which matches the sellers.

Going with 28-42.