The Sale:

Sold for 23 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1582416000/1582502400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090520837#!/compare/1582416000/1582502400

https://backpack.tf/item/7383139219

23 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/671;5;u56

$33.33, Feb 25th

$44.99, March 6th

$42.99, March 20th

$39.95, March 24th

$44.44, March 25th

https://backpack.tf/item/7957587778 - March 6th

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-06&price=44.99 - $44.99 / $1.71 = 26.31 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5RW8189 - B/O of 25

Can’t find any other item histories.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-25&price=33.33 - $33.33 / $1.77 = 18.83 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGZ63197 - No important B/Os

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-20&price=42.99 - $42.99 / $1.68 = 25.59 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXXQP2X1 - Seller at 20 here, but we don’t know if they were the marketplace seller

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-24&price=39.95 - $39.95 / $1.68 = 23.78 keys

Listing history not available during this time period, doesn’t differ much from the last

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-25&price=44.44 - $44.44 / $1.69 = 26.30 keys

Same situation as above

After rounding, we have:

25 keys (Capped by B/O)

26 keys (2x)

And it’s likely that one of the sales at 26 was the seller at 20, given that their listing wasn’t visible shortly afterwards:

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGLZRWQZ

Using as evidence to support keeping 19

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957587778 (#1, the rest was gambled)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956731966 (#2-6)

https://backpack.tf/item/6838063782 (#7-9)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956799599 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/7956361324 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/2205837298 - scrap/gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/7956048547 - same deal as #1

https://backpack.tf/item/1812661201 - marketplace

#1

Bulk?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

Seller’s backpack won’t update, not gonna bother waiting for it.

#2

Sold for DBD Sole Mate

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1579219200/1579305600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064093548#!/compare/1579305600/1579392000

Can be used on the Sole Mate.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093418155#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394148072#!/compare/1585267200/1585440000

#4

Sold for Duped Steaming Killer Exclusive

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394148072#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316317677#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

#5

Bulk for DBD Tough Stuff Muffs

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114635132#!/compare/1585785600/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088890227#!/compare/1585785600/1585958400

#6

Sold with some metal for Stormy Storm Crit Cloak

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316317677#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114635132#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

Can’t get snapshot histories during this time on this item.

Not too many sales on the Crit Cloak, Probably better to use there.

#7

Gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198964323363#!/compare/1583280000/1583452800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1583366400/1583452800

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1583884800/1583971200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986633877#!/compare/1583539200/1583971200

#9

Backpack purchase or something

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064914564#!/compare/1585699200/1586476800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031743044#!/compare/1586390400/1586476800

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/6jXoo5P.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6838063782 - 37 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/1812661201 - 45 keys

Highest buyer is ~15 keys.

Sales at:

19

23

24

25

26 (2x)

Keeping 19, even though it looks like an outlier, as one of the sales at 26 is likely to cap at 20. Can’t tell if they did sell on marketplace for sure, but even if they didn’t the fact that someone was willing to take 20 for this supports the inclusion of 19 here.

Taking 19-26.