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Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30542;5;u57
$40, Jan 18th
$48, Jan 20th
$48, Jan 21st
$33.06, March 19th
https://backpack.tf/item/5575874429 - Jan 18th
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y35XG0OE - B/O of 27
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-01-18&price=40 - $40 / $1.78 = 22.47 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/8264257934 - Jan 21st
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198449329742#!/compare/1579564800/1580947200
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y35XG0OE - B/O of 27
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-01-20&price=48 - $48 / $1.78 = 26.97 keys
Couldn’t find any other histories.
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-01-20&price=48 - $48 / $1.78 = 26.97 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9GDLGNX - No important B/O, the seller at 25 was not the seller of this sale, pretty sure. Theirs was listed until March. (couldn’t find their history, for the record)
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-19&price=33.06 - $33.06 / $1.67 = 19.80 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y80ENDO9 - No important B/O
After rounding, we have:
20 keys
22 keys
27 keys (2x)
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/8620444023 (#1)
https://backpack.tf/item/7373606398 (#2)
https://backpack.tf/item/5575874429 (#3)
https://backpack.tf/item/7956668835 - marketplace
#1
Bulk for pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000
#2
Sold for Hot Field-Tested Night Owl Sniper Rifle + ~4 keys in metal/items
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198856571713#!/compare/1579219200/1579305600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126918323#!/compare/1579046400/1579305600
https://i.imgur.com/tInGZtg.png - considering the buyer at 23 on the Sniper Rifle, this sale is most likely going to exceed at least 28 keys, which is significantly higher than the sellers at 22 and 25. (the seller at 25 is also the buyer of this sale) Excluding this sale for that reason.
#3
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007280045#!/compare/1552089600/1579305600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263920590#!/compare/1579219200/1579305600
The skin matches, as well as a random weapon, but this isn’t gonna help us.
Sellers/Buyers:
https://i.imgur.com/5k7jIj7.png
https://backpack.tf/item/7373606398 - 22 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/7373606398 - 25 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/7955567752 - 36 keys
Sales at:
20
22
27 (2x)
Excluding 27, due to the cheaper sellers, though I probably wouldn’t have excluded them if they weren’t so ancient.
Taking 20-22.