Suggestion: '72 Taunt: Flippin' Awesome at 4–4.75 keys

We have the exact amount of ref, and the compare suggests that keys were spent on other stuff afterwards, so I have no doubts that this sold for what bot.tf labels the sale at.

4.1 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 4 keys + 6 ref? (~.1)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147#!/compare/1585699200/1585785600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1585699200/1585785600

https://backpack.tf/item/2714274290

https://i.imgur.com/sr2RVmk.png - labelled as 4 keys + 6 ref on bot.tf

We can see 4 keys + 2 ref here. I don’t doubt it sold for the full 4 keys + 6 ref. Even if I’m wrong, this would fit in the range anyway.

4.1 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 4 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171447086#!/compare/1583452800/1583539200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1583539200/1583625600

https://backpack.tf/item/6679259085

4 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1107;5;u3004

$10, Feb 17th

$10, Feb 20th

$10, Feb 27th

$7.80, March 21st

$6.80, April 1st

$8.79, April 11th

$8.52, April 15th

Didn’t see any of the histories while going through these.

All $10 sales are going to be excluded immediately, as they’re gonna be higher than the sellers.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-21&price=7.8 - $7.8 / $1.68 = 4.64 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-01&price=6.8 - $6.8 / $1.69 = 4.02 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-11&price=8.79 - $8.79 / $1.70 = 5.17 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - $8.52 / $1.77 = 4.81 keys (manic.tf doesn’t have a key price recorded for this date yet

For the snapshots, I’m only going to check for B/Os lower than 4 keys, as we would need a sale lower than 4 keys to change the range here.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y79QKKLL - April 15th

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZPJP6L0 - April 11th

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4P00L7XE - April 1st

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXXQ8KO7 - March 21st

No B/Os lower than 4 keys, these sales should be fine.

After rounding, we have:

4 keys

4.65 keys

4.8 keys

5.15 keys

[b]Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7886990835 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6679259085 (#3-9)

https://backpack.tf/item/5148817735 (#10)

https://backpack.tf/item/4211230840 (#11)

https://backpack.tf/item/3817761852 (#12-15)

https://backpack.tf/item/2714274290 (#16)

https://backpack.tf/item/3880711129 - wasn’t unusual

https://backpack.tf/item/6512171096 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6290233460 - scammer

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156129396#!/compare/1582329600/1582416000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838447026#!/compare/1582329600/1582416000

Not listed on bot.tf

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838447026#!/compare/1582416000/1582502400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323929190#!/compare/1573257600/1584576000

Not listed on bot.tf, appears to be a SCM sale.

The sale after this is untraceable on the seller’s end, as their backpack is probably private, so I can’t get a compare link on their end.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1586217600/1586304000

https://i.imgur.com/sr2RVmk.png - labelled as 4 keys + 6 ref

Bulk for pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081125754#!/compare/1583280000/1583539200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171447086#!/compare/1583452800/1583539200

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171447086#!/compare/1583452800/1583539200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1583452800/1583539200

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1583971200/1584057600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165841420#!/compare/1584576000/1584748800

Sold with 2 keys for Kill-a-Watt Bolted Birdcage

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165841420#!/compare/1584748800/1584835200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198735283230#!/compare/1584748800/1584835200

Can be used on the Bird Cage.

Bulk for Cloud 9 Plug-In Prospector + some metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198735283230#!/compare/1584748800/1584835200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840347736#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600

Sold with a double-spelled napalmer for some strange items

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840347736#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146260252#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600

Not the best sale to be using.

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146260252#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036385359#!/compare/1585353600/1585526400

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176022675#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344336412#!/compare/1582329600/1583366400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1583625600/1583712000

https://i.imgur.com/sr2RVmk.png - labelled as 4 keys + 12 ref (~4.2)

Most likely missing a person in the history.

#12

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1581897600/1581984000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355089825#!/compare/1581897600/1581984000

#13

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355089825#!/compare/1581984000/1582070400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066711026#!/compare/1581897600/1582070400

probably gambled

#14

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838447026#!/compare/1582416000/1582502400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203807203#!/compare/1582243200/1585180800

#15

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1583020800/1583107200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354459626#!/compare/1583020800/1583107200

https://i.imgur.com/sr2RVmk.png - labelled as 4 keys + 42 ref (~.75)

#16

Bulk for Terror-Watt Hat With No Name

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361900367#!/compare/1585699200/1585785600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147#!/compare/1585699200/1585785600

Using on the HWNN

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/1kPe8Xv.png

https://i.imgur.com/yi5AIYR.png

Buyers as high as ~3.55 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4211230840 - ~4.75 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2714274290 - ~4.77 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7443965270 - ~5.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3522226238 - ~5.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4374699412 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3718760845 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2863025922 - 12 keys

Sales at:

4 (2x)

4.1 (2x)

4.15

4.65

4.75

4.8

5.15

Sellers at ~4.75, excluding anything higher.

Taking 4-4.75.