Sale 1:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163568327#!/compare/1585267200/1585612800

https://backpack.tf/item/7623556729

https://i.imgur.com/R5UOLTP.png - bot.tf confirms.

The buyer sold their Aussie Tomi to scrap, then bought the hat before their backpack was scanned. The 8 keys grouped together on the seller’s end show the same scrap bot trading the keys to this seller.

8 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 6 keys + ~.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199006628920#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000485231#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

https://backpack.tf/item/7623556729

6.5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 6 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108797381#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983435133#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

https://backpack.tf/item/7984794300

6 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 6 keys (buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983435133#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198374206487#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

https://backpack.tf/item/7984794300

6 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 6 keys + ~12 ref in stranges/vintages

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198374206487#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198338718048#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

https://backpack.tf/item/7984794300

6 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for 6 keys + 5 ref (Buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211445756#!/compare/1584748800/1584835200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1584748800/1584835200

https://backpack.tf/item/7623556729

https://i.imgur.com/R5UOLTP.png - bot.tf confirms

6 keys

Sale 7:

Sold for 6 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170139169#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050938648#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

https://backpack.tf/item/7623556729

5 keys match on the buyer’s end, 2 match on the seller’s end. Of those 7 keys, 6 are unique.

6 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31029;5;u36

$18, Feb 5th

https://backpack.tf/item/7623556729

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-05&price=18 - $18 / $1.77 = 10.17 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YDLJ0D0K - No B/O

Rounds to 10 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7984794300 (#1-6)

https://backpack.tf/item/7623556729 (#7-9)

https://backpack.tf/item/7879129307 - scrap

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030688986#!/compare/1583539200/1583798400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267930919#!/compare/1583452800/1583539200

#2

Bulk for Haunted Ghosts Human Cannonball

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267930919#!/compare/1583452800/1583539200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142864294#!/compare/1583452800/1583539200

https://backpack.tf/item/8450697121 - Cannonball

Using on the Cannonball.

#3

Bulk for pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142864294#!/compare/1583539200/1583625600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108797381#!/compare/1583539200/1583625600

#4

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198338718048#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131081286#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

#5

Sold for 5 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131081286#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308210394#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

There was most likely at least 1 more key involved, spent later on in the day.

#6

Exact same situation as the one above

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308210394#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

#7

Bulk for Planets Festive Tree

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225162696#!/compare/1584748800/1584835200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211445756#!/compare/1584662400/1584748800

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000485231#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170139169#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

#9

Sold for 5 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170139169#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050938648#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

I either miscounted or at least 1 key is missing in the compares.

Sales at:

6 (5x)

6.5

8

10

https://i.imgur.com/wFaRR9c.png - Highest buyer at 6+, no other buyers higher than 6.

10 is an outlier, and is already fairly old anyways. Excluding 10.

5 sales at 6 are not countered by 1 buyer slightly higher than 6. Keeping 6.

Taking 6-8.