Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30546;5;u57

$39.99, Jan 23rd

$31.20, Feb 16th

https://backpack.tf/item/7021808539 - 16th February

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EEJO0X6 - No important B/O

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-02-16&price=31.2 - $31.2 / $1.77 = 17.63 keys

Couldn’t find the other history.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLRNP5R5 - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-01-23&price=39.99 - $39.99 / $1.78 = 22.47 keys

After rounding, we have:

22 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7956582316 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7954370508 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956627379 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7021808539 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/5056524695 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957447924 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/7957184622 - mannco bot

https://backpack.tf/item/7956429963 - tradeit bot

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199019555004#!/compare/1587254400/1587340800 - can’t get a good compare link

Most likely SCM.

#2

Bulk for Slumber Cannonball

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273637877#!/compare/1586390400/1586476800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1586390400/1586476800

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999507606#!/compare/1582761600/1583193600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1582761600/1582848000

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087494715#!/compare/1582156800/1582243200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357093059#!/compare/1582156800/1582243200

https://i.imgur.com/LiuGn3D.png - labelled as 21 keys + 21.44 ref

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095818737#!/compare/1568246400/1579651200 (kept creating errors when trying to load backpack)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123016538#!/compare/1579046400/1580688000

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/5xxwew1.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7957184622 - ~16.15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957454215 - ~16.15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7021808539 - ~18.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5070579447 - 65 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6806056671 - 68 keys

Buyers at ~15.5 keys

Sales at:

18

22

https://i.imgur.com/LiuGn3D.png - another sale for ~17 keys, apparently. Couldn’t find the item’s history when looking into it.

18 would be high, but there are no other sales that would suit this drop better. Will excluding 22.

Setting the low-end with sellers.

Taking 16-18.