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Thanks to ShuffffleSpy for helping out
Sale 1:
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056974324#!/compare/1585008000/1585094400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1585008000/1585094400
Sale 2:
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053720151#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000
Sale 3:
untrace - likely buy order
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051443288#!/compare/1581292800/1581897600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1581811200/1581897600
Sale 4:
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1582588800/1582675200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086178920#!/compare/1581033600/1582675200
Sale 5:
13 keys - under buyers: https://imgur.com/a/eQeNBWG
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394457682#!/compare/1582761600/1582848000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086178920#!/compare/1582848000/1583107200
Sale 6:
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061207144#!/compare/1581292800/1581379200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006544512#!/compare/1581292800/1581379200
Sale 7:
bot transfer
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006544512#!/compare/1583884800/1583971200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985910282#!/compare/1583884800/1583971200
Sale 8:
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985910282#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198819901435#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600
Sale 9:
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198819901435#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198994857134#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800
Sale 10:
steaming KE
even taking buyers on KE this is gonna be high outlier: https://imgur.com/a/EmdpEyB
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198994857134#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214308952#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800
Sale 11:
untrace - likely buy order
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214308952#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800
Sale 12:
13 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131081286#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800
Sale 13:
13 keys + 20 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1585180800/1585267200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131081286#!/compare/1585180800/1585267200
Sale 14:
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318065526#!/compare/1585353600/1585440000
Sale 15:
13 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318065526#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125534438#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800
Sale 16:
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125534438#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199002481817#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800
Sale 17:
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280667527#!/compare/1585353600/1585612800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199002481817#!/compare/1585612800/1585699200
Sale 18:
16 keys
planets HWNN(13) + 2 keys + ~1 key sweets
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280667527#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132403284#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000
HWNN: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e9e157907fea5480e28ed69
Sale 19:
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799319181#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132403284#!/compare/1585958400/1586044800
Sale 20:
13 keys + 3 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799319181#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400
Sale 21:
14 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154700747#!/compare/1585958400/1586044800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1585958400/1586044800
==============================================================================
Sales:
13,13,13,13,13,14,16
many buyers at 13: https://imgur.com/a/teDeljH
4 months unsold at 20 keys supports drop
https://imgur.com/a/vA6yBn0
Some new sales.
Sold for 16 keys + about 3.68~ keys in sweets
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115721685#!/compare/1589846400/1590019200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084334538#!/compare/1589932800/1590019200
16 + 3.68 = 19.68 rounding to 20 keys
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198972294135#!/compare/1590537600/1590624000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308210394#!/compare/1587340800/1590624000
Possibly for keys
Sold for 13 keys + 25 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1590537600/1590624000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198972294135#!/compare/1590537600/1590624000
Rounds to 13 keys
Unknown
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1590192000/1590278400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1590192000/1590105600
Sold for 35 on May 20, 2020
35/1.88 = 18.617 rounding to 19 keys
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/323;5;u8
https://backpack.tf/item/233492214
https://gyazo.com/2133377e1a0029f9f17f4d8670524be0
Could exclude 13, but 19 and 20 seem reasonable to include, as your low end is common enough to include 14, but it's still low considering current buyers.
There are now 2 sellers at ~16 keys. Looks to me like 19 and 20 are outliers.
15.64 and 15.74 to be exact, which is lower than the high end here as well here.
This means that 16 would also be too high here, at least, if they do not sell.
I thought it'd be worth to chime in. I just auctioned of one of these with a min bid of 15 keys. It did not got any higher bids than that.
https://scrap.tf/auctions/CXVRIB