Sale 1:

Sold for 17 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1586390400/1586476800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114635132#!/compare/1586390400/1586476800

https://backpack.tf/item/7955961070

17 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 16 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993422884#!/compare/1580515200/1580601600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110701650#!/compare/1580428800/1580515200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956378339

16 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/671;5;u57

$29.95, Feb 4th

$29.99, March 24th

$29.95, April 17th

$29.95, April 21st

$18.62, April 22nd

https://backpack.tf/item/8271516202 - Feb 4th

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVRJD95W - No B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-04&price=29.95 - $29.95 / $1.78 = 16.83 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7917708946 - April 21st

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M19XL9JX - No B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-21&price=29.95 - $29.95 / $1.79 = 16.73 keys

Can’t find remaining histories

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-24&price=29.99 - $29.99 / $1.68 = 17.85 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9QG288N - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-17&price=29.95 - $29.95 / $1.77 = 16.92 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y80Q2539 - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-22&price=18.62 - $18.62 / $1.75 = 10.64 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MQ05D7N0 - No important B/O

After rounding, we have:

17 keys (3x)

[b]Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957001109 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956378339 (#2-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/7955961070 (#5-8)

https://backpack.tf/item/1794591513 (#9)

https://backpack.tf/item/5148293580 - tradeit bot

#1

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1584144000/1584316800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147927648#!/compare/1585094400/1585353600

#2

Bulk for Haunted Ghosts Tundra Top

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963485175#!/compare/1579824000/1579996800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993422884#!/compare/1579651200/1579910400

#3

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110701650#!/compare/1581638400/1581811200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113487100#!/compare/1517529600/1582070400

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113487100#!/compare/1582848000/1583366400 - Can’t get good compare link

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198193671641#!/compare/1583193600/1583366400

#5

Sold with a couple keys in taunts for Bubbling Casemaker

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198293633636#!/compare/1585699200/1587600000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1585785600/1585872000

#6

Sold for Haunted Ghosts Familiar Fez + 1 key

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114635132#!/compare/1586476800/1586563200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148514448#!/compare/1586476800/1586563200

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y80QQP9D - B/O of 35

Can be used to update the Fez. Seller at $35 on the fez on Marketplace currently, so it might not be such an outrageous drop there.

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148514448#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198356206453#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198356206453#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081588529#!/compare/1556496000/1586736000

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325571264 - Can’t get new compare (backpack won’t update)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165482249#!/compare/1584835200/1585180800

The only thing it could’ve sold for that would change the outcome of this suggestion is the keys on the buyer’s end, but looking at the seller’s backpack (even in fallback, which is what I had to resort to), they don’t have any keys on them, so we can’t trace the sale anyways.

Sellers/Buyers:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/671;5;u57

https://backpack.tf/item/8239536446 - $52.50 (~30 keys)

https://i.imgur.com/lHAFxRu.png

Buyers at ~14 keys

Sales at:

11

16

17 (4x)

18

11 is lower than quickbuyers. Excluding 11.

Taking 16-18.