Suggestion: Ethereal Essence Bat Hat at 17–20 keys

Given the amount of new items that went into the seller’s backpack later that day, I don’t doubt there was a 19th key that was spent on a different item. I’ll assume bot.tf is correct here.

19 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 14 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103218659#!/compare/1586131200/1586217600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1586044800/1586131200

https://backpack.tf/item/8288962127

14 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31058;5;u129

$30.20, Feb 24th

$30, Feb 27th

$33.33, Feb 28th

$44.99, March 4th

$30.04, March 21st

$30.11, March 25th

$44.50, March 30th

$30.06, April

https://backpack.tf/item/8268797537 - April 19th

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-19&price=30.06 - $30.06 / $1.79 = 16.79 keys

Listing history not applicable here, it went to a buy order.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-24&price=30.2 - $30.2 / $1.76 = 17.16 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4W67WDGN - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-27&price=30 - $30 / $1.76 = 17.05 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/46N5NX70 - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-28&price=33.33 - $33.33 / $1.75 = 19.05 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGZ053LQ - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-04&price=44.99 - $44.99 / $1.68 = 26.78 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y35QPLV6 - I’m certain the seller was the last 25 key listing. They have a marketplace link on their bp profile, and their listing disappears shortly after the sale. I can’t find the item in their backpack unfortunately.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXQ3JREP - listing gone here. Gonna assume this was the seller. This caps at 25 keys.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-21&price=30.04 - $30.04 / $1.68 = 17.88 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y3W5JQEE - wasn’t the 17 key seller, they sold to a bot (“Other Sales, #6).

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-25&price=30.11 - $30.11 / $1.69 = 17.82 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5ZR2JX5 - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-30&price=44.5 - $44.5 / $1.69 = 26.33 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD118065 - Was none of the sellers here. Bots sold it for pure, Hugh still owns it, and the 1st listing belongs to Unused sale #14.

https://backpack.tf/item/8155660434 - Either 24th, 27th or 28th Feb, can’t tell which exactly. Not useful for finding a B/O, which wasn’t necessary given no sellers below any of the sales during this point.

Couldn’t find any other history.

After rounding, we have:

17 keys (3x)

18 keys (2x)

19 keys

26 keys

27 keys

[b]Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/8270846884 (#1-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/8268797537 (#5-7)

https://backpack.tf/item/8214712193 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/8155660434 (#9)

https://backpack.tf/item/8169877557 (#10)

https://backpack.tf/item/8565209180 (#11-14)

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1582675200/1582761600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198974078824#!/compare/1582675200/1583020800

https://i.imgur.com/3W8ZdIe.png - labelled as 20 keys + 30 ref

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198974078824#!/compare/1582675200/1583020800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1582934400/1583020800

https://i.imgur.com/3W8ZdIe.png - labelled as 14 keys + 7 ref

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054002248#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

https://i.imgur.com/3W8ZdIe.png - Labelled as 20 keys

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054002248#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

https://i.imgur.com/3W8ZdIe.png - Labelled as 13 keys + 5 ref

Sold for Snowfallen Spiky Viking

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1584316800/1584403200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122451312#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

Can be used on the Viking.

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122451312 - inv won’t update, doesn’t show any keys in fallback, so it’s gonna be untraceable anyways

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1586736000/1586822400

https://i.imgur.com/3W8ZdIe.png - Labelled as 13 keys + 5 ref

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1587081600/1587168000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004386287#!/compare/1586908800/1587254400

https://i.imgur.com/3W8ZdIe.png - Labelled as 18 keys + 25 ref

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180719433#!/compare/1583798400/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028900954#!/compare/1582848000/1585094400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047743975#!/compare/1586044800/1586131200

#10

Sold for Terror-Watt Cotton Head

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377298887#!/compare/1583798400/1583884800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298140322#!/compare/1583798400/1583884800

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4O9O7NPW - B/O of 20

Can be used on the Cotton Head, if it isn’t too high there. Cotton head has a seller pretty close to buyers on the Bat Hat, so it may end up being pretty low if used here.

https://i.imgur.com/N4ceSYh.png (some cotton head sellers)

#11

Sold for 13 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092970200#!/compare/1583712000/1583798400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067967717#!/compare/1583625600/1583712000

I’m gonna assume some keys are missing. If not, this sale is low anyways.

#12

Sold for 10 keys + 2 unusual taunts + some cheaper items

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067967717#!/compare/1583798400/1583884800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198806136304#!/compare/1583625600/1584316800

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R0PVZG9 - B/O of 19

Should fit in the range, if not cap at the B/O.