Sale 1:

Sold for Haunted Ghosts Sultan’s Ceremonial (Suggestion at 16)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1585958400/1586044800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138804105#!/compare/1585958400/1586044800

https://backpack.tf/item/7957329897

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KV02QXX - B/O of 17

16 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827530902#!/compare/1580256000/1580342400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346516392#!/compare/1579910400/1580256000

https://backpack.tf/item/7956830443

11 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/390;5;u57

$25, March 30th (2x)

$20, April 3rd

$29.99, April 14th

https://backpack.tf/item/3330661467 - 30th March

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/466698Q2 - No important B/Os

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-30&price=25 - $25 / $1.69 = 14.79 keys (2x)

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-03&price=20 - $20 / $1.70 = 11.76 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQ6RNWE - No important B/Os

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-14&price=29.99 - $29.99 / $1.75 = 17.14 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4P09XZ16 - No important B/O, 15 key seller still has it

After rounding, we have:

[b]Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7956830443 (#1-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/3330661467 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957329897 (#6)

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1584144000/1584489600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1584489600/1584576000

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198402039752#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

Keys match, but I doubt they were actually part of the sale.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198402039752#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1586044800/1586131200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198843060075#!/compare/1584230400/1586304000

Dead Presidents Prancer’s Pride matches, but again, I doubt it was actually involved.

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

#6

Sold for Circling Heart Rimmed Raincatcher

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138804105#!/compare/1586044800/1586131200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084845902#!/compare/1577232000/1586131200

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R0DX632 - No B/O

Not many sales on the Raincatcher, can be used there instead.

Haunted Ghosts Ceremonial:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ea1737d63c6db28ae77c8fa

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/Sy6W1Sm.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3330661467 - ~14.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957329897 - 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957297292 - 21 keys

Highest buyer at ~11.7 keys

Sales at:

11

12

15 (2x)

16

17

11 is lower than buyers, excluding.

12 is almost quickbuyer price, but I figured if I exclude that, I’d have to exclude the sales higher than 15, otherwise we’d have a range fairly higher than the sellers. It would probably be better to make a wide range to account for the scattered datapoints here.

Taking 12-17.

Update on the Ceremonial:

Being re-suggested at 16.5

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ea5157fc3675957e81fe134

Made an error on the value of the 1st sale.

Doesn't affect the range here, just means the 16 key sale will end up being 17 (rounded from 16.5)