Sale 1:

Sold for DBD Killer’s Kabuto (Suggestion at 26.5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198929043238#!/compare/1584662400/1584748800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362557846#!/compare/1584576000/1584662400

https://backpack.tf/item/7957491387

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J9G3N9V - No B/O

27 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for Pro. KS Aus Black Box (Sale at 19 below) + Pumpkin Bombs Festive Wrench (Sale at 2 below) + ~1 key in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827124516#!/compare/1586563200/1586736000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199015337499#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

https://backpack.tf/item/3070600371

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182771770#!/compare/1587427200/1587513600 - Wrench appears to have sold for 2. It looks to have quickly resold on SCM afterwards.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158847398#!/compare/1581552000/1587513600

Worth noting that the Black Box has a more desirable Killstreaker/Sheen than the ones listed for ~18 keys, and has resold for 19 keys here:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827124516#!/compare/1587254400/1587340800

22 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 20 keys?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993987295#!/compare/1580169600/1580688000

https://backpack.tf/item/7955686577 - Buyer isn’t traceable

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KR3ROL0 - B/O of 20

Given the group of 20 keys on the seller’s end also come from an unscanned backpack, I’d say it’s likely that this sale is correct. If it isn’t, it fits in the range anyways.

20 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 19 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026156196#!/compare/1583107200/1583193600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027098599#!/compare/1582156800/1583193600

https://backpack.tf/item/7956160796

19 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 18 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196894698#!/compare/1586217600/1586304000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827124516#!/compare/1586217600/1586304000

https://backpack.tf/item/3070600371

Was hard to figure out exactly how many keys it sold for as the buyer bought 2 unusuals from the same seller at separate times on the same day. I used the item ID’s on the keys on the buyer’s end to determine which keys went towards which item. The ID of the Dapper is 8658308818, so any keys that go to the buyer and give an ID similar to that (within ~1000 numbers, usually depends on how many items involved as more items = more IDs). Through this, I found exactly 18 keys that had IDs similar to this. The other unusual’s ID is 8659617123, so keys that have a similar ID to that went towards the Cold Killer. https://backpack.tf/item/7956160166

18 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/252;5;u57

$37.95, Feb 1st

$38.95, March 8th

$22.02, April 22nd

Couldn’t find histories for these.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-01&price=37.95 - $37.95 / $1.78 = 21.32 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KR3ROL0 - 20 key seller is addressed in Sale 3.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-08&price=38.95 - $38.95 / $1.72 = 22.65 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZK8895Q - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-22&price=22.02 - $22.02 / $1.75 = 12.58 keys

Would’ve gone to a buy order, so I won’t bother looking for snapshots on this one.

After rounding, we have:

23 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957491387 (#1-7)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956692463 - marketplace

#1

Sold with some metal for 14 keys? (buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133820283#!/compare/1583107200/1583193600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060818091#!/compare/1583107200/1583193600

Perhaps some of the keys that show going to the banned used in the dapper’s history were involved. In which case, I wouldn’t want to use this sale, as they are probably working with that banned user.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113194487#!/compare/1584489600/1584662400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113194487#!/compare/1584489600/1584662400

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113194487#!/compare/1584489600/1584662400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198929043238#!/compare/1584662400/1584748800

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362557846#!/compare/1584748800/1584921600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131081286#!/compare/1584748800/1584835200

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312571585#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278991373#!/compare/1584748800/1584921600

#6

Bulk for Death by Disco Duck Billed Hatypus

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278991373#!/compare/1584748800/1584921600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1584748800/1584921600

#7

Sold for Stormy Storm Head Warmer + 1 key

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131081286#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312571585#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600

Looked into the Head Warmer, the only pure sale I could find was below buyers, the rest of the sales were for other outdated items (which weren’t many), or were bulk, or otherwise better off being used on a different hat, so it would be better to use this sale on the Head Warmer instead.

Disco Beat Down Kabuto:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ea24b22c6283c5c2e64ab28

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/FSYbPII.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3070600371 - 25 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957491387 - 26 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7955577880 - 40 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2191471327 - 45 keys

Sales at:

13

18

19

20

21

22

23

27

27 is an outlier, and is higher than 2 sellers. Excluding 27.

13 is an outlier, and is lower than the buyers. Excluding 13.

Taking 18-23.