Sale 1: (Spec. KS)

Sold for 40 keys + Vintage Crusader’s Crossbow

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141455733#!/compare/1582156800/1582243200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198887873596#!/compare/1582243200/1582329600

https://backpack.tf/item/2175785538

Looks to have been transferred to a friend or alt afterwards.

40 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 18 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077875601#!/compare/1585094400/1585526400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102723028#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800

https://backpack.tf/item/7956604471

18 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198816039340#!/compare/1581379200/1581465600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128923241#!/compare/1581206400/1581465600

https://backpack.tf/item/7956571028

14 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 13 keys + cheap killstreak kit

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131081286#!/compare/1581292800/1581379200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198816039340#!/compare/1581292800/1581379200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956571028

13 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1582588800/1582675200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060379908#!/compare/1582588800/1582761600

https://backpack.tf/item/7956202706

13 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1583798400/1583884800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312449240#!/compare/1583798400/1583884800

https://backpack.tf/item/3779389963

12 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/291;5;u57

$25.99, March 14th

$23.95, March 15th

$26, March 24th

$25.99, April 8th

$24.95, April 11th

$29.58, April 20th

No snapshots available

https://backpack.tf/item/7956571028 - 15th March (Juice)

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-15&price=23.95 - $23.95 / $1.72 = 13.92 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3779389963 - 24th March

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-24&price=26 - $26 / $1.68 = 15.48 keys

Couldn’t find any other histories.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-14&price=25.99 - $25.99 / $1.72 = 15.11 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-08&price=25.99 - $25.99 / $1.69 = 15.38 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-11&price=24.95 - $24.95 / $1.70 = 14.68 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-20&price=29.58 - $29.58 / $1.79 = 16.53 keys

After rounding, we have:

15 keys (4x)

17 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957461957 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957314229 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956571028 (#4-11)

https://backpack.tf/item/3779389963 (#12 & #13)

https://backpack.tf/item/2175785538 (#14)

https://backpack.tf/item/7989938406 - marketplace/tradeit

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198809115211#!/compare/1584489600/1586217600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1586131200/1586217600

#2

Sold for Green Confetti Tundra Top

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198821294885#!/compare/1587600000/1587686400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197965180377#!/compare/1585180800/1587772800

No snapshots available. Probably better to use on the Tundra. We have enough pure sales here anyways.

#3

Sold for Smoking Dapper?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195205727#!/compare/1587513600/1587945600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1587513600/1587600000

I’m almost certain more was involved, there’s no way this was a 1:1.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161581872#!/compare/1580947200/1581206400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131081286#!/compare/1581120000/1581206400

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128923241#!/compare/1582934400/1583020800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1582934400/1583020800

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1583193600/1583280000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198266706266#!/compare/1559260800/1583884800

#7

Sold for 12 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

Given other sales around this time, I’m convinced that there were more keys involved than this, especially with the matching keys occurring earlier on in the registered day in the compare link, with many other hats being bought later that day. Excluding.

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198972294135#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198401737380#!/compare/1586044800/1586908800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126246920#!/compare/1586390400/1586563200

#10

Sold for 9 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126246920#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

Pretty sure more were involved.

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272560640#!/compare/1578441600/1585699200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155110999#!/compare/1581292800/1581379200

#12

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999507606#!/compare/1582761600/1583193600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1582761600/1582848000

#13

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312449240#!/compare/1583884800/1583971200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225715416#!/compare/1583798400/1583971200

#14

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024867201#!/compare/1581379200/1581465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141455733#!/compare/1581379200/1581465600

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/Gm0n3Wu.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7957314229 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956571028 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957461957 - 22 keys

Buyers at ~11 keys

Sales at:

12

13 (2x)

14 (2x)

15 (4x)

17

18

40

40 was for a Spec. KS one, and is already a high outlier. Excluding 40.

Sellers at 13 keys. Large amount of sales at 15, the higher sales are gonna be outliers. Keeping 15, as hinted by Mindacos.

Taking 12-15.