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I tried to find as much proof as a could. Help is always appreciated !
Sale 1
Bought on Marketplace for 540$
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30175;5;u38;kt-2
Median price for keys that day was 1.82$
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
540$ / 1.82$ = 296.7 Keys
Rounding to 297
Sale 2
Sold 1:1 for a Burning Flames Brotherhood of Arms
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144628116#!/compare/1579996800/1585612800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993888396#!/compare/1585440000/1585612800
https://backpack.tf/item/5389366554
Mini on the BOA
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118922746#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600
Sold for a Scorching Rifleman (275/ Outdated) and a Smoking Ballooniehoodie (180)
Mini on the Rifleman
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198333437182#!/compare/1586995200/1587081600
Sold for a Morning Glory Galvanized Gibus (140) ?
Histories
Gibus : https://backpack.tf/item/6291974900
Rifleman : https://backpack.tf/item/5733483553
To Summarize
Mini on Rifleman : 140
Mini on BOA : 180 (Ballooniehodie) + 140 (Rifleman) = 320
End Result
Cloudy Moon Cotton Head :
Low: 297 Keys (MP.tf sale)
High: 320 (Trade for BOA)
It's generally not a great idea to use 1 sale for a Mini for items (the Brotherhood and Rifleman) that have many sales.
Brotherhood sales...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118130177#!/compare/1584576000/1585094400 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400 - Scorching Flames Peak + Beams Cotton + Cloudy Moon AA
https://imgur.com/a/nlIDYfJ - The Peak/Cotton/AA sale is capped by the buyout of 349 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989031107#!/compare/1586995200/1587168000 - Ethereal Peak (130) + Beams Nuke (82.5) + Snowfallen Trucker (55)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044111092#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118922746#!/compare/1584835200/1584921600 - There was a Max's added to the sale you used
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30066;5;u13 + https://backpack.tf/item/5389366554 - Sold for $475 (250 Keys)
250 - 350 will work for the Brotherhood
Ethereal Peak sales...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058569038#!/compare/1582156800/1582243200 - Icefall Cane (84 Keys) + Sparkling Cane (60.5 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1582243200/1582329600 - 125 Keys
Rifleman sales...
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090448861#!/compare/1587945600/1588204800 - 140 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079634422#!/compare/1583193600/1583280000 - Haunted Ghosts Yellow Belt + Green Energy Scotch Bonnet
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1583193600/1583280000 - Nebula Universal Translator + 30 Keys + Sweets
https://imgur.com/a/SEKW1W4 - The Translator sale is capped by the buyout of 345 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118922746#!/compare/1586131200/1586217600 - Better for the Executioner
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134238543#!/compare/1586736000/1586822400 - Approximately 140 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961420647#!/compare/1586822400/1586908800 - Approximately 125 Keys
This will still average out to around 140 Keys, so it's not the biggest issue in this case.
With the Brotherhood counted as 300 Keys, I would round 297 to 300 (the Marketplace sale) and just go 300 flat here.
Thanks for the very detailed collection of sales/proof.
May I use all of this for the new suggestion of 300 keys ?
Yes.