Sale 1:

Sold for 11 keys + more than half a key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993422884#!/compare/1587772800/1587859200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119016283#!/compare/1574899200/1587859200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956296136

12 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 10 keys + more than half a key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173442901#!/compare/1584662400/1584748800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352502999#!/compare/1584576000/1584748800

https://backpack.tf/item/7956715200

11 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 9 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352502999#!/compare/1584576000/1584748800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1584748800/1584835200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956715200

9 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30378;5;u57

$28.80, Feb 11th

$22.22, March 2nd

https://backpack.tf/item/7955737518 - Feb 11th

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-02-11&price=28.8 - $28.8 / $1.77 = 16.27 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4JGDLDG9 - B/O of 16

Can’t find the other history.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-02&price=22.22 - $22.22 / $1.71 = 12.99 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNLPZO1Q - No important B/O

After rounding, we have:

13 keys

16 keys (Capped by B/O)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7956715200 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956296136 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957103085 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/7956408051 - marketplace

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1586649600/1586736000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107995487#!/compare/1581811200/1587859200

Only a couple keys match on the buyer’s end.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119016283#!/compare/1588204800/1588809600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1588464000/1588550400

Probably fell for a festive/festivized scam, then got quicksold to the bot

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/mLWzWGs.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7956296136 - ~12.6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957103085 - 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956408051 - 16 keys

Buyers at ~9.5 keys

Sales at:

9

11

12

13

16

9 is a fair bit below buyers, excluding 9.

16 is way above some sellers. Excluding 16.

Taking 11-13.