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yar har
sales I could find:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30116;5;u10
$78 on april 14, keys 1.75 = 44.57 keys
$79.99 on april 25, keys 1.79 = 44.68 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218628708#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200
https://imgur.com/a/mLjW0K6
compares show mucy paying 33 keys, buy out was 35
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358296372#!/compare/1586304000/1586390400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1586304000/1586390400
from bot to bot, not sure what was it
my sale, a violet vortex capuchon + 8 keys for ge carribean
https://imgur.com/a/mXZVooF
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110248446#!/compare/1588550400/1588809600
capuchon has no recent sales and unpriced, buy out was 40
in conclusion: 45,45,33-35?
going to go with 45
The lower buyouts show that 45 flat is way too high. There's a current marketplace seller at $72.22, which is ~36 keys. There was a recent unsold at 45 keys, but not sure what the history for that is
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057747574#!/compare/1588636800/1589068800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110248446#!/compare/1588550400/1588809600 a mini on the capuchon may now be possible, so I'd recommend looking into that.