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Mini for Crimson's Burning Lid suggestion.
Thanks to Shuffle for answering some questions too.
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067893369#!/compare/1586908800/1587254400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195731583#!/compare/1587168000/1587254400
bulk
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148511293#!/compare/1587945600/1588032000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075670723#!/compare/1587945600/1588118400
bulk / Untrace
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340829257#!/compare/1582675200/1582934400
50 Pure
Taking 50 keys.
If any of the current 4 sell I'll update.
I traded that hat for csgo stuff. Counted this hat like 50-55. So pretty much supports the current price.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067893369#!/compare/1587513600/1587600000 - Frozen Icefall Brain-Warming Wear
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091233640#!/compare/1589673600/1589846400 - ?
I would use the Brain-Warming sale to make a range here. You'll need to price it first.
The Brain Warming doesn't have any valid non-bulk sales in the past 2 months, and with 3 on the market, and the relatively new status of the effect, going for 3 month old sales isn't valid.
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067893369#!/compare/1587513600/1587600000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148511293#!/compare/1587513600/1587600000
The sale for the defragmenting.
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067893369#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600
Bulk
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832639251#!/compare/1585699200/1585785600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1585699200/1585785600
Untrace
Sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001366450#!/compare/1588636800/1588723200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031743044#!/compare/1588636800/1588723200
Bulk
Sale 5:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031743044#!/compare/1590624000/1590710400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199050716558#!/compare/1590624000/1590710400
Bulk
Sale 6:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199050716558#!/compare/1590796800/1590883200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150399228#!/compare/1590710400/1590883200
Bulk
As for the 2nd sale, it looks like he got 24 keys from an unrelated source and he gave that hat to a marketplace bot, but given that neither seller is him, it's likely that it was a quicksell that was immediately listed on marketplace shortly after by the new seller. 24 keys is several keys below bot buy orders, so it's not a valid sale of the defragmenting.