Resuggestion, thanks to Cashew for the info!

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1583280000/1583884800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1583366400/1583539200

Bulk QS

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1584576000/1584662400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125493556#!/compare/1584662400/1584835200

Sold with negligible sweets for C9 Tartan + ~4 keys in sweets

Tartan Mini:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5e9ebe0ba61c831dc530b494

Suggestion for 21.5 keys

Total is 17.5 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y79DGVZW

B/O of ~17 keys, capping

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125493556#!/compare/1584921600/1585267200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1584921600/1585008000

Bulky

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198449473770#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200

Sold with negligible sweets for 14 keys

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160942053#!/compare/1583884800/1584057600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1583712000/1583884800

Bulk

sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1587254400/1587340800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1587254400/1587340800

QS

sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131081286#!/compare/1582070400/1582156800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272832232#!/compare/1582070400/1582156800

Sold for ~15 keys

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272832232#!/compare/1582156800/1582243200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053809624#!/compare/1582243200/1582329600

Sold for CH Shutter + ~1.5 keys in sweets

Shutter Mini:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ead1f5369789617197350a5

suggestion for 11.5 keys

Total is 13 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KRK8G3E

B/O of 19 keys

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053809624#!/compare/1582329600/1582502400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826254247#!/compare/1582329600/1582416000

Sold for Stormy Razor

use there

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXQ92QQ8

B/O of 16 keys

Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826254247#!/compare/1582848000/1582934400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133820283#!/compare/1582848000/1582934400

Untrace

Sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133820283#!/compare/1582934400/1583020800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113194487#!/compare/1582934400/1583020800

Sold for CH Airdog + 2 keys

use there

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M17J0LXQ

B/O of 14 keys

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113194487#!/compare/1582934400/1583020800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162963055#!/compare/1582934400/1583020800

Sold for Aces Jeepcap + 5 keys

use there

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZK8R5VX

B/O of 20 keys

sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162963055#!/compare/1583280000/1583366400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176125115#!/compare/1583193600/1583280000

Sold with ~2 keys in sweets for 15 keys

Total is 13 keys

Sale 14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176125115#!/compare/1583366400/1583452800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082788453#!/compare/1584057600/1584144000

Sold for Aces Dragonborn

Dragon mini:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ead27c54a93af160274b34e

Suggestion for 8.75 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLRWND6Z

B/O of 20 keys

sale 15:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082788453#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

Bulk

Sale 15:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1584230400/1584316800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069659994#!/compare/1584057600/1584316800

Bulk

Sale 16:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069659994#!/compare/1586995200/1587081600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1586995200/1587081600

Sold for 12 keys

Total sales @:

9, 12, 13, 13, 14, 15, 17 keys

buyers up to ~12.46 keys,

sellers for 20 keys,

Cashew's Part:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30418;5;u58 new sale at $29.95, rounds to 16 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073335093#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274217530#!/compare/1578441600/1589414400 green confetti coldsnap + just under 2.5 keys of items. Would be way too low for the coldsnap and way too high here

13-16 should be fine.