Price Suggestion
~10.5 keys
terror-watt
Unusual Valley Forge Terror-Watt
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Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30114;5;u57

$18.89, March 22nd

$17.83, April 27th (3x)

$19.99, May 13th


https://backpack.tf/item/7956706906 - 22nd March

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J9GLKQP - No B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-22&price=18.89 - $18.89 / $1.68 = 11.24 keys


https://backpack.tf/item/8399571107 - one of the April 27th ones (other movements in the history were gambling/untraceable)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956827064 - another April 27th one (Robino to Johan is untraceable)

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNRZPD03 - B/O of ~9.5 (2x)

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-27&price=17.83 - $17.83 / $1.82 = 9.80 keys

Can’t find the other history for the April 27th sales, or for the May 13th sale.


https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - $19.99 / $1.90 = ~10.52 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0OWRNRE - No important B/O


After rounding, we have:

9.5 keys (2x, capped by B/O)

10 keys

11 keys (2x)


Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957199781 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7957065994 - mannco bot (most likely missing a person in the history)

https://backpack.tf/item/4056172333 - marketplace


Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/pxpTHTm.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7956827064 - ~9.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4056172333 - 16 keys


Sales at:

9.5 (2x) (rounding up to 10)

10

11 (2x)


The rules state that if the average value generated from sales is 10 or higher, the sales will have to be rounded to the nearest integer, and if it’s lower than 10, they’d be rounded to the nearest .5. The sales we have would suggest a range of 10-11, which is a bit higher than the seller at 9.5, and I’m not too comfortable making the low-end half a key higher than the seller. I’d also considered excluding 11 and taking a price of 9.5-10, as to now stray too far from the seller at 9.5, which would be lower than 10 keys on average. I decided against this because there’s more evidence for 11 than there is for 10, and because the seller at 9.5 is kinda weak, since adding them or visiting their site is required to trade with them.

For the sake of this situation, I’m hoping an exception to the rounding rule can be made here, otherwise some feedback would help here.

Going with 10-11, as per Mindacos’ request: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ebe4c021cd35e76817c98a6#comment-5ebe8a43b9ff68488c7acf9b