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Sale 1:
Sold for 10 keys + around half a key in metal
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210304984#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199019754381#!/compare/1588291200/1588464000
https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585
10.5 keys
Sale 2:
Sold for 9 keys + half a key in metal (Buyer’s end)
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985910282#!/compare/1586901600/1586988000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210304984#!/compare/1586908800/1586995200
https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585
9.5 keys
Sale 3:
Sold for 9 keys + a small amount of metal
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059880386#!/compare/1588291200/1588377600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079558727#!/compare/1588204800/1588377600
https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585
9 keys
Sale 4:
Sold for 8 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322852417#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093603955#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000
https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585
8 keys
Sale 5:
Sold for 8 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385160220#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322852417#!/compare/1589068800/1589155200
https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585
8 keys
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/250;5;u57
$36, March 3rd
$10.11, April 22nd
$18.99, April 24th
Couldn’t find the histories. No snapshots available.
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-03&price=36 - $36 / $1.68 = 21.43 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-22&price=10.11 - $10.11 / $1.75 = 5.78 keys
http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-24&price=18.99 - $18.99 / $1.80 = 10.55 keys
After rounding, we have:
6 keys
10.5 keys
21.5 keys
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/7956481071 (#1-3)
https://backpack.tf/item/5928642638 (#4)
https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585 (#5-9)
#1
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198820994977#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077793208#!/compare/1586217600/1588464000
#2
Sold with a key for Terror-Watt Snaggletooth
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077793208#!/compare/1588464000/1588550400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342399444#!/compare/1588464000/1588723200
Using on the Snaggle.
#3
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342399444#!/compare/1588723200/1589846400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871163068#!/compare/1589414400/1589500800
#4
Bulk for SBTWC Bear Necessities
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339336870#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095022965#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400
#5
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052542442#!/compare/1588377600/1588636800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059880386#!/compare/1588291200/1588377600
#6
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079558727#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085404084#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000
1 key matches
#7
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085404084#!/compare/1588636800/1589068800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826254247#!/compare/1588809600/1589068800
#8
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826254247#!/compare/1588809600/1589068800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008315371#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800
#9
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008315371#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385160220#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800
The Logo Beret matches ID’s, but I doubt it was a 1:1 trade. If it really was, it can be used there anyways.
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/7OPANsO.png
https://backpack.tf/item/7956481071 - 9 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5928642638 - 12 keys
Sales at:
6
8 (2x)
9
9.5
10.5 (2x)
21.5
21.5 is a large outlier, excluding 21.5.
6 is way too low, excluding 6.
There are many buyers at 8, however, given how close sales to quickbuyers are to the other sales, I’m going to keep 8 in the range. It’s also likely that the seller at 9 bought at 8.
Seller at 9 is only a couple days old, keeping the other sales above it.
Average price of the non-outlier sales is below 10 keys, so we round to the nearest 0.5.
Going with 8-10.5.
10.5 = 11
same response here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ec35eeac7acea51e04ec342#comment-5ec381178c64c32ebb0479d8
If the median is below 10 keys, then both ends of the range should be rounded to the nearest 0.5 keys. Same logic applies for the 5 key threshold.
However, there's a recent sale at ~11 keys
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/250;5;u57
So this should be 8-11.