Sale 1:

Sold for Steaming Defiant Spartan + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1586908800/1586995200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198424002851#!/compare/1586822400/1586995200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956726548

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1DXVGX - B/O of ~8

Easily caps

8 keys (Capped by B/O)

Sale 2:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308772967#!/compare/1587686400/1587945600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089791817#!/compare/1587686400/1587772800

https://backpack.tf/item/7956391278

https://i.imgur.com/xTCg2oO.png - bot.tf kinda confirms

8 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30072;5;u57

$17.50, April 27th

$16.50, April 30th

$24.70, May 1st

$16.50, May 1st

https://backpack.tf/item/7955774675 - One of the May 1st sales

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-01&price=24.7 - $24.7 / $1.85 = 13.35 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-01&price=16.50 - $16.50 / $1.85 = 8.92 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQNK1JW - B/O of 15 on one of them, nothing here affects the prices.

Couldn’t find any other history.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-27&price=17.5 - $17.5 / $1.82 = 9.62 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J96QWD9 - No B/O, 7.5 key seller didn’t sell it on marketplace. See #7 below.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-30&price=16.5 - $16.5 / $1.82 = 9.07 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/466GK10L - No B/O

After rounding, we have:

9 keys (2x)

13.5 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7956726548 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7955774675 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/5007621430 (#3-5)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956391278 (#6-8)

#1

Bulk for Circling Peace Sign Cannonball

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198424002851#!/compare/1587513600/1587600000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199025158544#!/compare/1587513600/1587600000

#2

Untraceable/bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1588809600/1589155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1589068800/1589155200

Gambled prior

#3

Bulk or something

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101875569#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026086082#!/compare/1587254400/1587340800

The sales prior to this had no usable compare links or were otherwise not worth looking into.

Gambled afterwards.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255414557#!/compare/1587772800/1589500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196296751#!/compare/1552348800/1587859200

Could’ve been marketplace

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196296751#!/compare/1587859200/1588118400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248299906#!/compare/1587081600/1587945600

Most likely sold for 7 keys to an unscanned inventory.

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198371026030#!/compare/1585180800/1585267200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308772967#!/compare/1585094400/1585180800

https://i.imgur.com/xTCg2oO.png - Labelled as 6 keys + 17.33 ref

Gambled prior.

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089791817#!/compare/1587772800/1587859200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161272026#!/compare/1587859200/1587945600

May have been bulk.

#8

Most likely sold for 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161272026#!/compare/1587945600/1588032000

Buyer’s backpack hasn’t been scanned. Checking the keys leads to a bot that definitely wouldn’t have bought it.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/lbAP5WX.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7955774675 - ~9.6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/1815686342 - 15 keys

Sales at:

8 (2x)

9 (2x)

9.5

13.5

13.5 is an outlier, excluding 13.5.

Average price of non-outlier sales is below 10, so we round to the nearest 0.5 keys.

Taking 8-9.5.