Sale 1:

Sold for 10 keys + around half a key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210304984#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199019754381#!/compare/1588291200/1588464000

https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585

10.5 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 9 keys + half a key in metal (Buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985910282#!/compare/1586901600/1586988000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210304984#!/compare/1586908800/1586995200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585

9.5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 9 keys + a small amount of metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059880386#!/compare/1588291200/1588377600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079558727#!/compare/1588204800/1588377600

https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585

9 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322852417#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093603955#!/compare/1589241600/1589328000

https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585

8 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385160220#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322852417#!/compare/1589068800/1589155200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585

8 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/250;5;u57

$36, March 3rd

$10.11, April 22nd

$18.99, April 24th

$20.99, May 19th

Couldn’t find the histories. No snapshots available.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-03-03&price=36 - $36 / $1.68 = 21.43 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-22&price=10.11 - $10.11 / $1.75 = 5.78 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-24&price=18.99 - $18.99 / $1.80 = 10.55 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - $20.99 / $1.89 = ~11.11

After rounding, we have:

6 keys

21.5 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7956481071 (#1-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/5928642638 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956785585 (#6-10)

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198820994977#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077793208#!/compare/1586217600/1588464000

#2

Sold with a key for Terror-Watt Snaggletooth

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077793208#!/compare/1588464000/1588550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342399444#!/compare/1588464000/1588723200

Using on the Snaggle.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342399444#!/compare/1588723200/1589846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871163068#!/compare/1589414400/1589500800

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871163068#!/compare/1589760000/1589846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165916326#!/compare/1589587200/1589846400

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ec35d5f9193b4405b14faeb - B/O of 9 (under “Sellers”)

Gambled afterwards.

#5

Bulk for SBTWC Bear Necessities

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339336870#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095022965#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052542442#!/compare/1588377600/1588636800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059880386#!/compare/1588291200/1588377600

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079558727#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085404084#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000

1 key matches

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085404084#!/compare/1588636800/1589068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826254247#!/compare/1588809600/1589068800

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826254247#!/compare/1588809600/1589068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008315371#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008315371#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385160220#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800

The Logo Beret matches ID’s, but I doubt it was a 1:1 trade. If it really was, it can be used there anyways.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/6wUExPQ.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5928642638 - 12 keys

Sales at:

6

8 (2x)

9

9.5

10.5 (2x)

11

21.5

21.5 is a large outlier, excluding 21.5.

6 is way too low, excluding 6.

There are many buyers at 8, however, given how close sales to quickbuyers are to the other sales, I’m going to keep 8 in the range. It’s also likely that the seller at 9 bought at 8.

Seller at 9 is only a couple days old, keeping the other sales above it.

Average price of the non-outlier sales is below 10 keys, so we round to the nearest 0.5, though that doesn’t matter here anymore.

Going with 8-11