The Sale:

Sold for 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054136616#!/compare/1585612800/1585699200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062649584#!/compare/1585526400/1585612800

https://backpack.tf/item/7956984873

12 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/597;5;u57

$30.42, May 13th

$25.10, May 26th

https://backpack.tf/item/7956109165 - May 26th

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4O9WW5NP - No B/O

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - $25.10 / $1.93 = ~13 keys

Couldn’t find the other history.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-13&price=30.42 - $30.42 / $1.90 = 16.01 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y79ZWW68 - No B/O (seller at 14 still has it)

After rounding, we have:

16 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7956984873 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956109165 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956058628 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/3420194698 - mannco bot

#1

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086611203#!/compare/1583366400/1583452800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116732510#!/compare/1583280000/1583366400

#2

Sold for a (realistically) ~2 key sniper rifle skin

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116732510#!/compare/1583971200/1584057600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054136616#!/compare/1583971200/1584057600

#3

Sold for ~9 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052542442#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203811797#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000

Key histories show it came from the buyer, went to another backpack, then went to the seller. Not sure what to make of that here.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144255366#!/compare/1589328000/1589414400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198366230127#!/compare/1589241600/1589500800

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/AwzgZlW.png

https://backpack.tf/item/1795279106 - 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956096759 - 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2607946217 - 19 keys

Sales at:

12

13

16

16 is an outlier and is countered by sellers. Excluding 16.

Seller at 11 has been listed at 11 for about 2 weeks. Was listed at 14 prior.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQ87G76

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EP9WKEQ

Adding 11 to the range.

Taking 11-13.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116218503#!/compare/1590537600/1591747200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028160995#!/compare/1590451200/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/item/1918676798

with 2 keys for bubbling bubble pipe

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970682238#!/compare/1590710400/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377298887#!/compare/1590537600/1591056000

https://backpack.tf/item/1918676798

untraceable auction

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377298887#!/compare/1591056000/1591488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198242124526#!/compare/1591228800/1591401600

https://backpack.tf/item/1918676798

untraceable auction