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Looking at recent history of this hat.
Sale #1
from ID 8217205350 to 8867319748
Sold at auction for 39 keys 10 ref.
Sale #2
from ID 8867319748 to 8872912212: bp compare
Sold for 13 keys + Bubbling Valley Forge (22 keys) + Bubbling Valley Forge (8 keys).
Mini for Green Confetti Sheriff's Stetson
Current bp sell order for 27 keys has been up for the past 10 months suggesting the high value of the last suggestion is truly obsolete. Other seller is unpriced. Current top buyer is at 20 keys 20 ref.
Sale #2.1
Sold for Eerie Orbiting Fire Engineer's Cap. Price also outdated.
Sale #2.2
For the sake brevity, 2 unusuals are also outdated, but orders are tight enough to estimate the prices fairly accurately.
I estimate the sale at 22 keys.
Taking 22 keys as a reasonable approximation.
Mini for Bubbling Valley Forge
last suggestion is obsolete (too old). Only relevant seller I could find is at 24.44 USD = 12.34 keys. Other seller is unpriced. Current top buyer is at 6 keys 28.11 ref.
Sale #2.3
Sold here for 8 keys.
Taking 8 keys as a reasonable approximation.
In short, sold for 43 keys.
Sale #3
from ID 8872912212 to 8876667189
Sold here (details) for 9 keys + Steaming Merc's Mohawk (18-20keys) + Disco Beat Down Ye Olde Baker Boy (19 keys).
Mini for Steaming Merc's Mohawk
bp listings
Sale #3.1
Taking that for maximum 20 keys.
Taking 18-20 keys as a reasonable approximation.
Mini for Disco Beat Down Ye Olde Baker Boy
bp listings
Taking 19 keys as a reasonable approximation.
In short, sold for 46-48 keys.
Sale #4
trade screenshot
Sold for 14 keys + 14 ref + Taunt: Spent Well Spirits (8.66-8.77 ref) + Purple Confetti Patriot Peak (29.5 keys)
Mini for Purple Confetti Patriot Peak
bp listings
Taking 29.5 keys as a reasonable approximation.
In short, sold for 44 keys.
Calling sale #3 high.
Going with 39-44 keys
Low value from sale #1.
High value from sale #4.
I understand the high value might be too high and low value might be too low, but I'd rather go with a wider range and a smaller p-value rather than too small of a range.
My Mini for Green Confetti Sheriff's Stetson still looks reasonably accurate to me.
I did a proper suggestion for the Bubbling Valley Forge pricing it at 8-12 keys, fitting in my range.
I was wrong in my Mini for Steaming Merc's Mohawk due to current bp seller. No matter since I omitted sale #3. Looks to me, just by looking at the current listings, that pricing it correctly would most likely make sale #3 fit in my range. Also, Disco Beat Down Ye Olde Baker Boy might be closer to 17-18 keys judging by current listings.
I was wrong in my Mini for Purple Confetti Patriot Peak. I did a proper suggestion for it which would price the Neutron Star Coldsnap Cap in sale #4 at ~39.4-40.4 keys, sitting comfortably in my range. :)
in the future, please include screenshots showing the effects of the unusuals in the trade history as these cannot be seen in your screenshots.
i'm accepting this since your range is still fine since sale 1 is 39 and sale 2 now adds to 44