Sale 1:

Sold for Dead Presidents Sola Topi (6.5) + ~1.5 keys in pure/items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144767588#!/compare/1588636800/1588723200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313510425#!/compare/1588550400/1588636800

https://backpack.tf/item/7957519122

8 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 6 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1588550400/1588636800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144767588#!/compare/1588550400/1588636800

https://backpack.tf/item/7957519122

6.5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 6 keys + a small amount of metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036144976#!/compare/1589328000/1589414400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1589328000/1589414400

https://backpack.tf/item/7998168451

6 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 6 keys + 10 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133295803#!/compare/1588118400/1590364800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1590278400/1590364800

https://backpack.tf/item/7955767439

6 keys

Marketplace Sales:

$14.44, April 17th

$13.44, April 17th

$14, April 19th

$15.86, April 30th

$15.86, May 17th

$15.99, May 21st

$15.99, May 27th

$16.99, June 3rd (2x)

No snapshots available

https://backpack.tf/item/7957673101 - One of the April 17th sales

https://backpack.tf/item/7955806788 - the other April 17th sale, and the April 30th sale. Gambled otherwise.

https://backpack.tf/item/7956683720 - May 17th

https://backpack.tf/item/3809502051 - May 21st, gambled afterwards.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-17&price=14.44 - $14.44 / $1.77 = 8.16 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-17&price=13.44 - $13.44 / $1.77 = 7.59 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-19&price=14 - $14 / $1.79 = 7.82 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-30&price=15.86 - $15.86 / $1.82 = 8.71 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-17&price=15.86 - $15.86 / $1.89 = 8.39 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-21&price=15.99 - $15.99 / $1.88 = 8.51 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-27&price=15.99 - $15.99 / $1.92 = 8.33 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-03&price=16.99 - $16.99 / $1.96 = 8.67 keys (2x)

After rounding, we have:

8 keys (2x)

8.5 keys (6x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/8232203260 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7998168451 (#2-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957673101 (#5-7)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957519122 (#8-12)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956718241 (#13 & #14)

https://backpack.tf/item/7956683720 (#15 & #16)

https://backpack.tf/item/7955767439 (#17 & #18)

https://backpack.tf/item/7955710272 (#19-23)

https://backpack.tf/item/3879933702 (#24)

https://backpack.tf/item/3809502051 (#25-27)

https://backpack.tf/item/2586397988 - gambled

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192432594#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200

Gambled prior

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1587254400/1587427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200

Gambled prior

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198990614061#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198990614061#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1586390400/1586476800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036144976#!/compare/1586390400/1586476800

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062153114#!/compare/1587081600/1587168000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1587081600/1587254400

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1587254400/1587427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1586822400/1586908800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017926833#!/compare/1586822400/1586908800

Gambled afterwards

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215761075#!/compare/1586995200/1587427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1586908800/1586995200

#10

Sold with Conga for Terror-Watt Tricorne

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313510425#!/compare/1588636800/1588723200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299954141#!/compare/1588723200/1588896000

Using on the Tricorne.

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299954141#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145889485#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

#12

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145889485#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354789132#!/compare/1591315200/1591574400

#13

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1587254400/1587340800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192432594#!/compare/1587168000/1587254400

#14

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000

#15

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158238131#!/compare/1589673600/1589760000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1589587200/1589673600

Gambled prior and afterwards

#16

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1591488000/1591574400

#17

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1590278400/1590364800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133295803#!/compare/1588118400/1590364800

#18

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1590278400/1590364800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198410048192#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600

Gambled afterwards.

#19

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1586304000/1586390400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198972294135#!/compare/1586304000/1586390400

#20

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198972294135#!/compare/1586304000/1586390400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095862827#!/compare/1586304000/1586390400

#21

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095862827#!/compare/1586390400/1586476800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1586476800/1586563200

#22

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020673987#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600

The rest of this history is pretty predictable, all untraceable or gambled.

#23

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043684553#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000

#24

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043684553#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

#25

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1590278400/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1590192000/1590278400

#26

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1590883200/1590969600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179253523#!/compare/1590537600/1590969600

#27

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179253523#!/compare/1590537600/1590969600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1590883200/1590969600

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/gwIzsqq.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3809502051 - ~8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7998168451 - 8 keys

Sales at:

6 (2x)

6.5

7.5

8 (3x)

8.5 (6x)

Fair amount of sales at 8.5, despite being higher than the two sellers. Keeping 8.5.

Plenty of buyers above 6, but given the fact that we’re keeping 8.5 in the range despite lower sellers, and the fact that there are most likely many, many more untraceable sales at 6 (ones that have gone to zol or quicksell site etc.), it should be fine to keep 6 in the range too.

Taking 6-8.5.