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Sale #1
Sold for 6 keys: trade screeshot
Sales #2-9
Marketplace.tf sales
#2 - March 24: 13.99 USD = 8.32 keys
#3 - April 16: 13.99 USD = 7.85 keys
#4 - May 13: 14.99 USD = 7.89 keys
#5 - May 15: 8.70 USD = 4.55 keys
#6 - May 21: 8.30 USD = 4.41 keys
#7 - May 24: 15.00 USD = 7.98 keys
#8 - May 26: 15.00 USD = 7.77 keys
#9 - June 14: 10.00 USD = 5.03 keys
Rounding
1 sold for 8.5 keys
4 sold for 8.0 keys
1 sold for 5.0 keys
2 sold for 4.5 keys
current top bp buyers at 4.5 keys
current top Mp buyers at 10.10 USD = 5.10 keys
Omitting sales #5, 6 and 9. Calling sale #2 an outlier. Not omitting sale #1 because I had the listing up for weeks at 6.5 keys without selling it, dropped the price to 6 keys and sold it in hours. Not sure either to exclude all sales over 6.5 or call sale #1 an outlier. I will just keep both since market seems to behave differently on Mp and bp.
Going with 6-8 keys
I know there were other sellers on bp not so long ago, but I was unable to track them. If you know of other sales, I'd be happy to look into it.
https://imgur.com/a/xFKdxyr - 2 week unsold @ 6
More sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154208358#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000
https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+%2772+Taunt%3A+The+Killer+Solo
Likely sold for 4 keys 50 ref, though I can only trace 4 keys from stn and a few ref from buyers side.
Supports 5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252425448#!/compare/1590883200/1590969600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280693486#!/compare/1590883200/1590969600
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1E1G0R - buy order was 4 keys 5.11 ref
Sold to a bot for 4 keys 5.11 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280693486#!/compare/1590969600/1591056000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047651540#!/compare/1590796800/1591401600
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLV2LX5Z - B/O was 5 keys 13 ref, buyer must of overpaid by 2 ref
That bot sold for 5 keys 15 ref the next day
$10.1 / $1.98 = 5.10 keys
$20 / $1.99 = 10.05 keys
$16.69 / $1.93 = 8.65
damn the last 2 are super high
That gives sales at:
4
4.5 (x2)
5 (x4)
6
8 (x4)
8.5 (x2)
10
There is certainly alot of support for 8 as the high end, but I have a feeling that the mods are going to prefer 5 - 6 instead of 5 - 8 because marketplace.tf tends to be high on taunts like this and the highest sale in pure was 6 + the current unsold at 6. If there was a pure sale at 8 I would say go for 5 - 8, but I think 5 - 6 is going to be better here.
Thanks for your help man π I totally agree