Resuggestion, thanks to maGIK & Cashew for the info!

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087531087#!/compare/1583971200/1584057600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271892201#!/compare/1583971200/1584057600

Bulky

sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271892201#!/compare/1584144000/1584230400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284282705#!/compare/1584230400/1584403200

Untrace

sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284282705#!/compare/1586476800/1588723200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1588636800/1588723200

Sold for 55 keys

sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1588809600/1588896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236669300#!/compare/1588896000/1588982400

Untrace

sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236669300#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092010721#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

Bulk

sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878866368#!/compare/1583366400/1583539200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971333647#!/compare/1583452800/1583539200

Untrace

sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198420714643#!/compare/1585353600/1585526400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200846930#!/compare/1585440000/1585526400

Bulk / untrace

sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200846930#!/compare/1585872000/1586044800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

QS for ~88 keys

sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198442247745#!/compare/1585267200/1585958400

Sold for keys, but the histories match for earlier time frames, and not when the Boxcar was sold.....

Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198268187402#!/compare/1587427200/1587513600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361257382#!/compare/1587340800/1587427200

Sold for 100 keys

sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361257382#!/compare/1587427200/1587513600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068546927#!/compare/1587427200/1587513600

Sod for 100 keys

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068546927#!/compare/1587513600/1587600000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272038643#!/compare/1587513600/1587600000

Sold for 94 keys

sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011321852#!/compare/1584489600/1584576000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160942053#!/compare/1584489600/1584576000

Sold for 139 keys

sale 14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160942053#!/compare/1584662400/1584748800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150597524#!/compare/1584662400/1584748800

Sold for Scorching Kiss King + ~4 keys in sweets

use there

sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150597524#!/compare/1584662400/1584748800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082162126#!/compare/1584316800/1584748800

Sold with ~15 keys in sweets for Nebula Phono

Phono Mini:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ebc41b88124ab2bd21c9d24

Suggestion for 115 keys

Total is 100 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4O9VG9PQ

B/O of 150 keys

sale 6:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30546;5;u13

$270 / $1.85 = 145.95 keys <--- https://backpack.tf/item/7621068262

Total sales @:

55, 88, 94, 100, 100, 100, 139, 146 keys

buyers up to ~82 keys

https://i.imgur.com/dUmqfJ5.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/tgi0E5i.jpg

months unsold at 130 keys,

3 weeks + unsold at 110 keys,

Cashew's Part:

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J9ZPZJV

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128992860#!/compare/1589328000/1590278400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044157063#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000 seller at 130 sold it, western will need mini

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044157063#!/compare/1590796800/1590883200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081042493#!/compare/1590624000/1590883200 PE danger + 11 keys, comes out to 108

Current marketplace seller at $250, classifieds buyers up to 89 keys

Assuming 94 is actually 80 and taking into account classified buyers, I'd go 100 - whatever the western sale comes out to.

looks like the western caps by buyers (39 - 40 buy orders) at 130.

going by sales:

https://pastebin.com/dJ7vsG7K

There's a brand new marketplace sale there that is pretty high uncapped. Seems fair to toss out the lower sales and that high sale and use that one sale you have. I'm assuming that will cap at 45. Would make the range here 100-125.

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5eed4a323dab412ba53d6460

MaGIK's Part:

Updatin with one new sale.

Sold with Electrostatic Big Elfin Deal (Open suggestion for 13 keys) for 100 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118922746#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198829459668#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

Not sure what the seller valued the two hats at, maybe a discount was added too.

100-13 = 87 keys

Elfin:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ee5d34eca3fcb42fe00ddcf

Current classifieds:

https://gyazo.com/feb7ac0772501ab978fdf0899376f0a9

87 is below highest buyers of 89. Can be excluded, and supports the drop here.