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Updating previous suggestion with newer sales (credits to aj for reminding me)
Random Fact #20: Banging your head against a wall for one hour burns 150 calories.
Sale 1:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30066;5;u11
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
Sold for 100$
100/1.94 = 52 keys
Sale 2:
Sold for 106$
106/2.03 = 52 keys
Trade 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102211716#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196606339#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200
Traded for Ooze
x=61.5, rounding 62
Trade 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095022965#!/compare/1588204800/1588377600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196606339#!/compare/1588204800/1588291200
Traded w/ 13 keys for Morning Glory Caribbean Conqueror (mini)
Mini:
Most recent sale:
https://marketplace.tf/shop/wsdea/items/tf2/30116;5;u89
Sold for 57$
57/1.71 = 33 keys
x+13 =33
x=20 (outlier yeet)
Trade 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342308033#!/compare/1590105600/1591228800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047960218#!/compare/1590364800/1590451200
Traded for PE cannonball (mini)
Mini:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/817;5;u10
Sold for 85$
85/1.91 = 45
x=45
We got 52, 62, 45
According to the classifieds, particularly ones higher than 60 keys (https://backpack.tf/item/6030380979 & https://backpack.tf/item/1872594043) has not been sold for several months, making 62 possibly a bit too high. 62 will be excluded.
Listing range 45-52 k
Night.
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30066;5;u11 - Sold for $105 (52 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102211716#!/compare/1588118400/1588204800 - Sold for 41 Keys
https://imgur.com/a/aNK4YiP - Sale 1 is capped by the buyout of 50 Keys
8 Keys were added to the Brotherhood in the sale for the Ooze Spartan, making that Sale 54 Keys.
However, that sale also is capped by the buyout of 50 Keys - https://imgur.com/a/lGEJGu7
5 Keys were added to the Cannonball, making that trade 50 Keys.
However, that sale is capped by the buyout of 45 Keys - https://imgur.com/a/G6F02JC
I'm fine excluding 41 as low but supportive of a drop. In the future, be careful when checking the sales and look for buyouts.
If you don't have access to the bot.tf screenshots, go ahead and ask someone on the discord.